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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of Napoli since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 62 times in 100; it said 59. Draws: said 23, happened 21 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened62 in 100Vesta said 59
Draws21 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match2.77Vesta expected 2.89
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
0–10 in 100686.85.9−0.9
10–20 in 10023515.214.9−0.3
20–30 in 10033525.122.1−3.0
30–40 in 1009634.937.5+2.6
40–50 in 1006745.252.2+7.0
50–60 in 1007754.959.7+4.9
60–70 in 1009165.468.1+2.7
70–80 in 1005174.268.6−5.6
80–90 in 1002284.586.4+1.8

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Napoli 0-1 EmpoliSun 12 Nov 2023 · Serie A6 in 100
  2. Napoli 0-1 SpeziaWed 22 Dec 2021 · Serie A9 in 100
  3. Napoli 0-1 CagliariWed 25 Sep 2019 · Serie A9 in 100
  4. Napoli 1-2 SpeziaWed 6 Jan 2021 · Serie A9 in 100
  5. Napoli 0-0 ChievoSun 25 Nov 2018 · Serie A11 in 100
  6. Napoli 0-1 EmpoliSun 12 Dec 2021 · Serie A11 in 100
  7. Napoli 1-1 SalernitanaSun 30 Apr 2023 · Serie A11 in 100
  8. Napoli 2-3 LecceSun 9 Feb 2020 · Serie A11 in 100
  9. Napoli 1-2 ParmaSat 14 Dec 2019 · Serie A12 in 100
  10. Empoli 3-2 NapoliSun 24 Apr 2022 · Serie A12 in 100
  11. Napoli 2-4 RomaSat 3 Mar 2018 · Serie A13 in 100
  12. Napoli 2-2 TorinoSun 6 May 2018 · Serie A14 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Napoli 0-0 ChievoSun 25 Nov 2018 · home win said85 in 100
  2. Napoli 1-1 SalernitanaSun 30 Apr 2023 · home win said85 in 100
  3. Napoli 0-1 EmpoliSun 12 Nov 2023 · home win said80 in 100
  4. Napoli 2-2 TorinoSun 6 May 2018 · home win said80 in 100
  5. Napoli 2-2 FrosinoneSun 14 Apr 2024 · home win said78 in 100
  6. Napoli 0-0 VeronaSat 15 Apr 2023 · home win said77 in 100
  7. Chievo 0-0 NapoliSun 5 Nov 2017 · away win said77 in 100
  8. Napoli 0-0 FiorentinaSun 10 Dec 2017 · home win said76 in 100
  9. Napoli 0-1 CagliariWed 25 Sep 2019 · home win said75 in 100
  10. Napoli 0-1 SpeziaWed 22 Dec 2021 · home win said74 in 100
  11. Napoli 1-2 SpeziaWed 6 Jan 2021 · home win said74 in 100
  12. Napoli 0-0 GenoaSat 9 Nov 2019 · home win said74 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Napoli348699677.4+21.6
Empoli10155.3+9.7
Inter193227.4+4.6
Bologna191915.4+3.6
Spezia662.5+3.5
Parma1096.1+2.9
Como585.7+2.3
Lazio182018.4+1.6
Chievo421.3+0.7
Monza643.8+0.2
Fiorentina191717.1−0.1
Verona161010.4−0.4
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Roma181520.0−5.0
Sampdoria1237.4−4.4
Udinese18711.4−4.4
Sassuolo16710.7−3.7
Cagliari1669.3−3.3
Genoa17810.7−2.7
Torino181113.3−2.3
SPAL 2013613.3−2.3
Cremonese402.2−2.2
Frosinone512.6−1.6
Benevento401.6−1.6
Juventus182324.5−1.5

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Napoli's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Serie A6476728172.552.670.174
2025-26Serie A38536827182.502.470.187
2024-25Serie A38555826262.642.260.162
2023-24Serie A38573924372.802.710.222
2022-23Serie A38637421163.022.760.160
2021-22Serie A38596122182.972.760.180
2020-21Serie A38576323133.003.340.200
2019-20Serie A38555823212.992.920.219
2018-19Serie A38606622182.912.890.167
2017-18Serie A38727117183.262.790.129

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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