All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 114 league matches of Salernitana since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 54 times in 100; it said 59. Draws: said 22, happened 32 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches114each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened54 in 100Vesta said 59
Draws32 in 100Vesta said 22
Goals a match2.93Vesta expected 2.97
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 30 | 6.7 | 0.0 | −6.7 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 69 | 15.3 | 27.5 | +12.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 108 | 25.6 | 28.7 | +3.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 33 | 34.6 | 18.2 | −16.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 29 | 44.1 | 48.3 | +4.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 20 | 55.9 | 55.0 | −0.9 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 22 | 64.2 | 54.5 | −9.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Salernitana 2-1 Fiorentina
Sun 24 Apr 2022 · Serie A10 in 100
Lazio 1-3 SalernitanaSun 30 Oct 2022 · Serie A11 in 100
Napoli 1-1 SalernitanaSun 30 Apr 2023 · Serie A11 in 100
AC Milan 3-3 SalernitanaSat 25 May 2024 · Serie A13 in 100
Verona 1-2 SalernitanaSun 9 Jan 2022 · Serie A13 in 100- Salernitana 2-2 AC MilanSat 19 Feb 2022 · Serie A13 in 100
Juventus 1-1 SalernitanaSun 12 May 2024 · Serie A13 in 100
Udinese 0-1 SalernitanaWed 20 Apr 2022 · Serie A13 in 100
Atalanta 1-1 SalernitanaMon 2 May 2022 · Serie A13 in 100- AC Milan 1-1 SalernitanaMon 13 Mar 2023 · Serie A15 in 100
- Salernitana 1-0 AtalantaSat 13 May 2023 · Serie A16 in 100
- Salernitana 1-1 Inter
Fri 7 Apr 2023 · Serie A16 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Napoli 1-1 SalernitanaSun 30 Apr 2023 · home win said85 in 100
- AC Milan 3-3 SalernitanaSat 25 May 2024 · home win said82 in 100
- Juventus 1-1 SalernitanaSun 12 May 2024 · home win said82 in 100
- Salernitana 2-2 AC MilanSat 19 Feb 2022 · away win said81 in 100
- Atalanta 1-1 SalernitanaMon 2 May 2022 · home win said80 in 100
- AC Milan 1-1 SalernitanaMon 13 Mar 2023 · home win said77 in 100
- Salernitana 1-1 InterFri 7 Apr 2023 · away win said75 in 100
Roma 2-2 SalernitanaSun 20 Aug 2023 · home win said70 in 100- Lazio 1-3 SalernitanaSun 30 Oct 2022 · home win said70 in 100
- Salernitana 2-1 FiorentinaSun 24 Apr 2022 · away win said70 in 100
- Roma 2-2 SalernitanaMon 22 May 2023 · home win said70 in 100
- Juventus 2-2 SalernitanaSun 11 Sep 2022 · home win said66 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Salernitana's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Serie A | 38 | 59 | 63 | 23 | 29 | 2.82 | 2.97 | 0.161 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | 38 | 57 | 39 | 23 | 39 | 3.00 | 2.89 | 0.217 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | 38 | 60 | 61 | 22 | 26 | 3.08 | 2.92 | 0.182 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.