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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 76 league matches of Cremonese since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 59 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 25, happened 29 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches76each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened59 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.55Vesta expected 2.73
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
10–20 in 1003715.918.9+3.0
20–30 in 1007326.021.9−4.1
30–40 in 1004633.932.6−1.3
40–50 in 1002143.657.1+13.6

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Cremonese 2-1 RomaTue 28 Feb 2023 · Serie A12 in 100
  2. Bologna 1-3 CremoneseMon 1 Dec 2025 · Serie A13 in 100
  3. AC Milan 1-1 CremoneseWed 3 May 2023 · Serie A14 in 100
  4. AC Milan 1-2 CremoneseSat 23 Aug 2025 · Serie A18 in 100
  5. Udinese 0-1 CremoneseSun 17 May 2026 · Serie A19 in 100
  6. Atalanta 1-1 CremoneseSun 11 Sep 2022 · Serie A19 in 100
  7. Cremonese 0-0 AC MilanTue 8 Nov 2022 · Serie A20 in 100
  8. Cremonese 1-1 AtalantaSat 25 Oct 2025 · Serie A24 in 100
  9. Cremonese 0-0 UdineseSun 30 Oct 2022 · Serie A24 in 100
  10. Cremonese 0-0 SassuoloSun 4 Sep 2022 · Serie A25 in 100
  11. Bologna 1-1 CremoneseMon 23 Jan 2023 · Serie A25 in 100
  12. Monza 1-1 CremoneseSat 18 Mar 2023 · Serie A25 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. AC Milan 1-1 CremoneseWed 3 May 2023 · home win said80 in 100
  2. Atalanta 1-1 CremoneseSun 11 Sep 2022 · home win said70 in 100
  3. Cremonese 0-0 AC MilanTue 8 Nov 2022 · away win said67 in 100
  4. Cremonese 2-1 RomaTue 28 Feb 2023 · away win said67 in 100
  5. Bologna 1-3 CremoneseMon 1 Dec 2025 · home win said63 in 100
  6. Cremonese 1-1 AtalantaSat 25 Oct 2025 · away win said62 in 100
  7. AC Milan 1-2 CremoneseSat 23 Aug 2025 · home win said58 in 100
  8. Torino 2-2 CremoneseMon 20 Feb 2023 · home win said57 in 100
  9. Monza 1-1 CremoneseSat 18 Mar 2023 · home win said56 in 100
  10. Lazio 0-0 CremoneseSat 20 Dec 2025 · home win said56 in 100
  11. Udinese 0-1 CremoneseSun 17 May 2026 · home win said54 in 100
  12. Cremonese 0-0 UdineseSun 30 Oct 2022 · away win said53 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Fiorentina4127.9+4.1
Juventus4128.3+3.7
Napoli4129.0+3.0
Lazio4107.8+2.2
Inter4129.9+2.1
Torino486.5+1.5
Lecce475.8+1.2
Cagliari242.9+1.1
Sassuolo476.2+0.8
Roma498.4+0.6
Monza243.5+0.5
Sampdoria232.7+0.3
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Cremonese766171.3−10.3
AC Milan458.9−3.9
Udinese457.2−2.2
Genoa213.0−2.0
Salernitana212.8−1.8
Parma212.7−1.7
Spezia212.6−1.6
Atalanta489.0−1.0
Bologna477.2−0.2
Como244.00.0
Pisa232.8+0.2
Verona465.8+0.2

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Cremonese's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2025-26Serie A38516127262.502.340.178
2022-23Serie A38555823322.952.760.170

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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