La Liga

Every remaining match simulated 10,000 times with Vesta’s strengths of today, added to the table as it stands. Sorted by average finishing position.

La Liga 2026-27: projected final table

#	Team	Now	Final ptsPts	Range	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3Bot. 3	Every position
1	Barcelona	21	93	85–100	94%	>99%	–
2	Real Madrid	15	78	70–87	5%	98%	–
3	Atletico Madrid	16	71	62–80	<1%	88%	–
4	Real Betis	16	63	54–72	<1%	47%	<1%
5	Villarreal	8	61	52–70	<1%	36%	<1%
6	Athletic Club	8	57	47–66	<1%	16%	<1%
7	Alaves	11	52	43–61	–	5%	2%
8	Sevilla	13	50	41–58	–	2%	4%
9	Real Sociedad	10	50	41–58	–	2%	5%
10	Rayo Vallecano	8	48	39–57	–	2%	6%
11	Deportivo La Coruna	10	47	38–56	–	1%	8%
12	Levante	5	46	37–55	–	<1%	11%
13	Celta Vigo	7	45	36–54	–	<1%	12%
14	Osasuna	8	44	36–53	–	<1%	16%
15	Espanyol	7	43	34–51	–	<1%	21%
16	Racing Santander	7	41	32–50	–	<1%	33%
17	Getafe	8	40	32–49	–	<1%	34%
18	Elche	5	40	32–49	–	<1%	36%
19	Valencia	4	39	31–48	–	<1%	41%
20	Malaga	3	35	26–43	–	–	69%

Range: 8 in 10 simulated seasons end between these points. Strengths stay as they are today: injuries, transfers and changes of coach are not in it, nor are points deductions. Computed Sat 3 Oct 2026, on data up to Sun 20 Sep 2026.

#	Team	W	D	L	Goals for	Range	Against	Range	Diff.
1	Barcelona	29	5	4	116	105–127	40	33–47	+76
2	Real Madrid	24	7	7	84	74–94	42	35–49	+43
3	Atletico Madrid	21	9	9	72	63–81	44	37–52	+27
4	Real Betis	18	9	11	57	49–66	49	41–57	+8
5	Villarreal	17	9	11	71	61–80	54	46–62	+16
6	Athletic Club	15	11	12	53	44–61	45	37–53	+8
7	Alaves	14	11	14	51	43–59	49	41–57	+2
8	Sevilla	13	10	15	46	38–53	53	45–62	-8
9	Real Sociedad	13	9	15	52	44–60	61	53–70	-10
10	Rayo Vallecano	13	11	15	52	44–60	60	52–69	-8
11	Deportivo La Coruna	12	12	14	49	41–57	56	47–64	-7
12	Levante	12	10	16	53	45–61	63	54–71	-10
13	Celta Vigo	11	12	15	47	39–55	52	43–60	-5
14	Osasuna	11	10	16	44	37–52	61	52–69	-17
15	Espanyol	11	9	18	47	40–54	58	49–66	-11
16	Racing Santander	11	9	18	51	43–59	75	66–84	-24
17	Getafe	10	11	17	34	28–41	52	44–61	-18
18	Elche	10	10	18	51	43–58	69	61–78	-19
19	Valencia	10	9	19	40	33–48	61	52–69	-20
20	Malaga	8	11	19	37	30–44	62	54–71	-26

Averages over the simulated seasons (the matches played included), so a row may not add up to the matches of a season after rounding.

Goals at the end of the season: the goals of the simulated rest of the season shared among each team's players by their recent part in its attack.

Assists are shared the same way, by each player's recent part in creating chances.

The chances that moved most, in percentage points: the projection now against the one made with the data of a week of matches ago.

• +32Malaga: bottom 3 37% → 69%
• +30Atletico Madrid: top 4 58% → 88%
• +26Racing Santander: bottom 3 7% → 33%
• +21Real Betis: top 4 26% → 47%
• −20Alaves: top 4 25% → 5%
• −18Elche: bottom 3 54% → 36%

Expected points: what the chances of every match (expected goals) were worth, on average. A team above them took more points than its chances, from finishing, goalkeeping or luck.

Team	Points	Expected	Difference
Real Betis	16	10.0	+6.0
Sevilla	13	8.5	+4.5
Atletico Madrid	16	12.5	+3.5
Barcelona	21	17.9	+3.1
Real Sociedad	10	8.1	+1.9
Deportivo La Coruna	10	8.1	+1.9
Getafe	8	7.2	+0.8
Rayo Vallecano	8	8.0	0.0
Alaves	11	11.3	−0.3
Real Madrid	15	15.6	−0.6
Osasuna	8	9.2	−1.2
Racing Santander	7	8.2	−1.2
Levante	5	6.6	−1.6
Celta Vigo	7	8.8	−1.8
Valencia	4	6.2	−2.2
Malaga	3	5.6	−2.6
Espanyol	7	9.7	−2.7
Elche	5	7.7	−2.7
Athletic Club	8	11.4	−3.4
Villarreal	8	13.2	−5.2