All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 228 league matches of Sampdoria since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 57 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 19 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches228each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened57 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws19 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.85Vesta expected 2.87
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 85 | 15.8 | 15.3 | −0.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 283 | 25.3 | 20.1 | −5.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 119 | 34.7 | 39.5 | +4.8 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 81 | 44.7 | 49.4 | +4.7 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 47 | 54.4 | 55.3 | +0.9 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 45 | 64.4 | 75.6 | +11.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Atalanta 1-2 Sampdoria
Tue 3 Apr 2018 · Serie A11 in 100
Roma 0-1 SampdoriaSun 28 Jan 2018 · Serie A13 in 100- Sampdoria 3-0 Napoli
Sun 2 Sep 2018 · Serie A14 in 100 - Atalanta 1-3 SampdoriaSat 24 Oct 2020 · Serie A14 in 100
- Sampdoria 0-1 Frosinone
Sun 10 Feb 2019 · Serie A15 in 100 - Sampdoria 2-1 Inter
Wed 6 Jan 2021 · Serie A15 in 100 - Sampdoria 3-2 Juventus
Sun 19 Nov 2017 · Serie A18 in 100 - Sampdoria 0-0 InterMon 13 Feb 2023 · Serie A18 in 100
- Atalanta 0-1 SampdoriaSun 7 Oct 2018 · Serie A18 in 100
- Sampdoria 4-1 Fiorentina
Mon 16 May 2022 · Serie A19 in 100 - Sampdoria 1-2 Salernitana
Sat 16 Apr 2022 · Serie A19 in 100 
Lazio 2-2 SampdoriaSat 8 Dec 2018 · Serie A19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Sampdoria 0-0 InterMon 13 Feb 2023 · away win said72 in 100
- Atalanta 1-2 SampdoriaTue 3 Apr 2018 · home win said71 in 100
- Roma 0-1 SampdoriaSun 28 Jan 2018 · home win said70 in 100
- Lazio 2-2 SampdoriaSat 8 Dec 2018 · home win said68 in 100
- Atalanta 1-3 SampdoriaSat 24 Oct 2020 · home win said66 in 100
- Sampdoria 3-0 NapoliSun 2 Sep 2018 · away win said66 in 100
- Sampdoria 2-1 InterWed 6 Jan 2021 · away win said64 in 100
- Sampdoria 0-1 FrosinoneSun 10 Feb 2019 · home win said64 in 100
AC Milan 1-1 SampdoriaSat 3 Apr 2021 · home win said64 in 100- Sampdoria 2-2 InterSun 12 Sep 2021 · away win said61 in 100
- Roma 1-1 SampdoriaWed 22 Dec 2021 · home win said61 in 100
Monza 2-2 SampdoriaMon 6 Feb 2023 · home win said60 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Sampdoria's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Serie A | 38 | 55 | 53 | 24 | 26 | 2.76 | 2.50 | 0.160 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | 38 | 50 | 66 | 26 | 16 | 2.78 | 2.87 | 0.200 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | 38 | 49 | 55 | 25 | 18 | 2.88 | 2.79 | 0.224 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | 38 | 49 | 66 | 25 | 16 | 2.82 | 2.97 | 0.193 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | 38 | 51 | 53 | 24 | 21 | 2.90 | 2.92 | 0.221 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | 38 | 53 | 47 | 23 | 16 | 3.11 | 3.05 | 0.228 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.