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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 190 league matches of Empoli since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 48 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 25, happened 28 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	82	15.5	15.9	+0.4
20–30 in 100	217	25.4	29.0	+3.6
30–40 in 100	93	34.1	26.9	−7.2
40–50 in 100	63	44.7	34.9	−9.8
50–60 in 100	48	54.7	58.3	+3.7
60–70 in 100	25	65.5	76.0	+10.5

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lazio	10	26	19.2	+6.8
AC Milan	10	26	21.5	+4.5
Roma	10	24	20.4	+3.6
Inter	10	27	23.9	+3.1
Genoa	8	14	11.3	+2.7
Verona	8	15	12.3	+2.7
SPAL 2013	2	4	2.4	+1.6
Sampdoria	6	10	8.4	+1.6
Spezia	4	6	5.0	+1.0
Venezia	4	6	5.1	+0.9
Torino	10	18	17.2	+0.8
Lecce	6	9	8.4	+0.6

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Napoli	10	15	22.8	−7.8
Salernitana	6	2	7.7	−5.7
Fiorentina	10	13	18.7	−5.7
Bologna	10	12	16.0	−4.0
Cagliari	8	7	10.7	−3.7
Empoli	190	189	191.9	−2.9
Como	2	1	3.2	−2.2
Monza	6	7	9.1	−2.1
Juventus	10	20	21.4	−1.4
Sassuolo	8	12	13.2	−1.2
Parma	4	5	5.7	−0.7
Chievo	2	2	2.1	−0.1

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Empoli's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2024-25	Serie A	38	50	42	28	34	2.43	2.42	0.171
2023-24	Serie A	38	53	50	25	24	2.67	2.18	0.213
2022-23	Serie A	38	54	45	24	34	2.88	2.26	0.196
2021-22	Serie A	38	53	47	23	29	3.23	3.16	0.222
2018-19	Serie A	38	54	55	23	21	2.99	3.18	0.195

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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