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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 310 league matches of Genoa since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 26, happened 31 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	25	7.8	0.0	−7.8
10–20 in 100	109	15.7	17.4	+1.7
20–30 in 100	371	26.1	28.0	+2.0
30–40 in 100	173	34.0	29.5	−4.5
40–50 in 100	120	44.4	46.7	+2.2
50–60 in 100	59	54.4	57.6	+3.3
60–70 in 100	45	64.1	62.2	−1.8
70–80 in 100	25	74.8	68.0	−6.8

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lazio	17	40	31.8	+8.2
Torino	16	32	23.9	+8.1
Parma	11	20	14.2	+5.8
Sampdoria	10	19	15.2	+3.8
Inter	16	39	35.5	+3.5
AC Milan	16	35	32.1	+2.9
Benevento	4	7	4.3	+2.7
Como	5	11	8.5	+2.5
Juventus	16	36	34.0	+2.0
Cremonese	2	4	2.3	+1.7
Udinese	16	24	22.4	+1.6
Napoli	17	38	36.6	+1.4

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Genoa	310	325	341.5	−16.5
Cagliari	16	13	20.8	−7.8
Bologna	16	17	24.7	−7.7
Empoli	8	5	10.5	−5.5
Sassuolo	14	16	21.4	−5.4
Verona	14	13	17.9	−4.9
Crotone	4	0	4.5	−4.5
Chievo	4	2	4.6	−2.6
Fiorentina	17	27	29.1	−2.1
Spezia	4	4	5.8	−1.8
Brescia	2	1	2.3	−1.3
Pisa	2	1	2.2	−1.2

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Genoa's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Serie A	6	42	50	30	17	2.40	2.67	0.201
2025-26	Serie A	38	48	53	28	29	2.47	2.42	0.191
2024-25	Serie A	38	50	53	28	34	2.46	2.26	0.182
2023-24	Serie A	38	50	50	28	34	2.45	2.37	0.201
2021-22	Serie A	38	53	50	25	42	2.84	2.29	0.179
2020-21	Serie A	38	53	47	24	32	2.82	2.76	0.189
2019-20	Serie A	38	50	58	25	24	2.87	3.16	0.214
2018-19	Serie A	38	52	42	25	37	2.74	2.53	0.197
2017-18	Serie A	38	52	53	25	21	2.69	2.00	0.194

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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