All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 310 league matches of Sassuolo since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches310each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened47 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.98Vesta expected 2.92
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 106 | 16.4 | 19.8 | +3.4 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 419 | 25.2 | 27.4 | +2.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 134 | 35.0 | 33.6 | −1.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 109 | 45.1 | 45.0 | −0.2 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 93 | 54.5 | 47.3 | −7.2 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 43 | 64.7 | 53.5 | −11.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Sassuolo 1-0 Inter
Sat 4 May 2024 · Serie A6 in 100- Inter 1-2 SassuoloWed 27 Sep 2023 · Serie A8 in 100
- Inter 0-2 SassuoloSun 20 Feb 2022 · Serie A9 in 100
- Inter 1-2 SassuoloSat 12 May 2018 · Serie A11 in 100
AC Milan 2-5 SassuoloSun 29 Jan 2023 · Serie A12 in 100
Atalanta 0-3 SassuoloSun 9 Nov 2025 · Serie A14 in 100
Roma 3-4 SassuoloSun 12 Mar 2023 · Serie A15 in 100- Roma 1-1 SassuoloSat 30 Dec 2017 · Serie A16 in 100
Napoli 0-2 SassuoloSun 1 Nov 2020 · Serie A16 in 100- Sassuolo 0-2 Verona
Sat 25 Nov 2017 · Serie A16 in 100 
Lazio 1-2 SassuoloSat 11 Jul 2020 · Serie A17 in 100- Sassuolo 2-1 Como
Fri 17 Apr 2026 · Serie A17 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Sassuolo 1-0 InterSat 4 May 2024 · away win said81 in 100
- Inter 1-2 SassuoloWed 27 Sep 2023 · home win said77 in 100
- Roma 1-1 SassuoloSat 30 Dec 2017 · home win said75 in 100
- Inter 0-2 SassuoloSun 20 Feb 2022 · home win said75 in 100
- Sassuolo 1-1 NapoliSat 31 Mar 2018 · away win said72 in 100
- Inter 1-2 SassuoloSat 12 May 2018 · home win said70 in 100
Juventus 2-2 SassuoloSun 1 Dec 2019 · home win said69 in 100- Lazio 1-1 SassuoloSun 26 May 2024 · home win said69 in 100
- AC Milan 2-5 SassuoloSun 29 Jan 2023 · home win said68 in 100
- Lazio 2-2 SassuoloSun 7 Apr 2019 · home win said68 in 100
- Inter 0-0 SassuoloSat 19 Jan 2019 · home win said67 in 100
- Sassuolo 1-1 AtalantaSun 2 May 2021 · away win said67 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie A | 6 | 47 | 50 | 28 | 33 | 2.70 | 3.33 | 0.204 |
| 2025-26 | Serie A | 38 | 48 | 50 | 27 | 18 | 2.56 | 2.53 | 0.245 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | 38 | 51 | 47 | 25 | 24 | 2.91 | 3.11 | 0.231 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | 38 | 51 | 45 | 25 | 24 | 2.99 | 2.84 | 0.225 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | 38 | 52 | 39 | 24 | 29 | 3.17 | 3.42 | 0.241 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | 38 | 51 | 58 | 24 | 29 | 3.05 | 3.16 | 0.194 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | 38 | 50 | 47 | 24 | 24 | 2.97 | 3.47 | 0.221 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | 38 | 52 | 45 | 24 | 42 | 2.85 | 2.97 | 0.177 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | 38 | 54 | 45 | 24 | 26 | 2.89 | 2.32 | 0.229 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.