All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 34 league matches of Darmstadt since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 59 times in 100; it said 59. Draws: said 21, happened 24 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches34each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened59 in 100Vesta said 59
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 21
Goals a match3.41Vesta expected 3.27
Likeliest score happened9 in 100Vesta said 11
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 35 | 24.6 | 28.6 | +3.9 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
FC Cologne 0-2 Darmstadt
Sat 20 Apr 2024 · Bundesliga19 in 100
Borussia M.Gladbach 0-0 DarmstadtSat 10 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga19 in 100
Freiburg 1-1 DarmstadtSat 25 Nov 2023 · Bundesliga21 in 100
Hoffenheim 3-3 DarmstadtTue 19 Dec 2023 · Bundesliga21 in 100
Bochum 2-2 DarmstadtSun 31 Mar 2024 · Bundesliga22 in 100
Werder Bremen 1-1 DarmstadtSat 24 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga23 in 100- Darmstadt 3-3 Borussia M.GladbachSun 17 Sep 2023 · Bundesliga24 in 100
- Darmstadt 0-0 Mainz 05
Sat 11 Nov 2023 · Bundesliga26 in 100 
Augsburg 1-2 DarmstadtSat 7 Oct 2023 · Bundesliga26 in 100- Darmstadt 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sat 20 Jan 2024 · Bundesliga26 in 100 - Darmstadt 1-2 BochumFri 3 Nov 2023 · Bundesliga28 in 100
- Darmstadt 1-4 Union Berlin
Sat 26 Aug 2023 · Bundesliga29 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Borussia M.Gladbach 0-0 DarmstadtSat 10 Feb 2024 · home win said68 in 100
- Freiburg 1-1 DarmstadtSat 25 Nov 2023 · home win said65 in 100
- Hoffenheim 3-3 DarmstadtTue 19 Dec 2023 · home win said64 in 100
- Werder Bremen 1-1 DarmstadtSat 24 Feb 2024 · home win said61 in 100
- Bochum 2-2 DarmstadtSun 31 Mar 2024 · home win said59 in 100
- FC Cologne 0-2 DarmstadtSat 20 Apr 2024 · home win said56 in 100
- Augsburg 1-2 DarmstadtSat 7 Oct 2023 · home win said49 in 100
- Darmstadt 1-2 BochumFri 3 Nov 2023 · home win said49 in 100
- Darmstadt 3-3 Borussia M.GladbachSun 17 Sep 2023 · home win said48 in 100
- Darmstadt 2-2 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 20 Jan 2024 · away win said45 in 100
- Darmstadt 1-4 Union BerlinSat 26 Aug 2023 · home win said43 in 100
- Darmstadt 0-1 FC CologneFri 1 Dec 2023 · home win said40 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Union Berlin | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
  FC Heidenheim | 2 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
  Wolfsburg | 2 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 |
  Bochum | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
  Bayern Munich | 2 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
  Mainz 05 | 2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
  Hoffenheim | 2 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
  Freiburg | 2 | 4 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Darmstadt | 34 | 17 | 29.6 | −12.6 |
  Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 3.5 | −2.5 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 2 | 2 | 3.3 | −1.3 |
  FC Cologne | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | −0.2 |
  Augsburg | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | −0.2 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 4 | 4.1 | −0.1 |
| Freiburg | 2 | 4 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Hoffenheim | 2 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| Mainz 05 | 2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| Bayern Munich | 2 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| Bochum | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Darmstadt's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 59 | 59 | 21 | 24 | 3.27 | 3.41 | 0.167 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.