All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 102 league matches of FC Heidenheim since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 54 times in 100; it said 55. Draws: said 23, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches102each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened54 in 100Vesta said 55
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match3.13Vesta expected 3.15
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 45 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 0.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 121 | 25.2 | 24.8 | −0.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 38 | 34.9 | 34.2 | −0.7 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 30 | 44.5 | 63.3 | +18.9 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 24 | 54.2 | 37.5 | −16.7 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 21 | 64.3 | 61.9 | −2.4 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 3-3 FC Heidenheim
Sat 2 May 2026 · Bundesliga6 in 100- FC Heidenheim 3-2 Bayern MunichSat 6 Apr 2024 · Bundesliga9 in 100
VfB Stuttgart 0-1 FC HeidenheimFri 25 Apr 2025 · Bundesliga12 in 100- VfB Stuttgart 3-3 FC HeidenheimSun 31 Mar 2024 · Bundesliga14 in 100
Borussia Dortmund 2-2 FC HeidenheimFri 1 Sep 2023 · Bundesliga15 in 100
Mainz 05 0-1 FC HeidenheimSat 16 Dec 2023 · Bundesliga16 in 100
Wolfsburg 0-1 FC HeidenheimSat 29 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga17 in 100
Union Berlin 1-2 FC HeidenheimSat 29 Nov 2025 · Bundesliga18 in 100
Werder Bremen 1-2 FC HeidenheimSat 10 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga19 in 100- FC Heidenheim 2-0 VfB StuttgartSun 5 Nov 2023 · Bundesliga20 in 100
- FC Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen
Sat 21 Mar 2026 · Bundesliga21 in 100 - FC Heidenheim 0-0 Borussia DortmundFri 2 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga21 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 3-3 FC HeidenheimSat 2 May 2026 · home win said92 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 3-3 FC HeidenheimSun 31 Mar 2024 · home win said79 in 100
- FC Heidenheim 3-2 Bayern MunichSat 6 Apr 2024 · away win said75 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 FC HeidenheimFri 1 Sep 2023 · home win said75 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 FC HeidenheimFri 25 Apr 2025 · home win said70 in 100
- FC Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer LeverkusenSat 21 Mar 2026 · away win said66 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-2 FC HeidenheimSun 23 Feb 2025 · home win said65 in 100- FC Heidenheim 3-3 VfB StuttgartSun 22 Feb 2026 · away win said63 in 100
- Mainz 05 0-1 FC HeidenheimSat 16 Dec 2023 · home win said62 in 100
- FC Heidenheim 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sat 1 Nov 2025 · away win said60 in 100 - Wolfsburg 0-1 FC HeidenheimSat 29 Mar 2025 · home win said60 in 100
- FC Heidenheim 0-0 Borussia DortmundFri 2 Feb 2024 · away win said60 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 16 | 11.0 | +5.0 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 6 | 14 | 9.9 | +4.1 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 6 | 16 | 12.6 | +3.4 |
  Augsburg | 6 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
  Hamburger SV | 2 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
  Hoffenheim | 6 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 16 | 13.8 | +2.2 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 14 | 13.1 | +0.9 |
  Bochum | 4 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
  Wolfsburg | 6 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
  Holstein Kiel | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 9.8 | −8.8 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 8 | 12.9 | −4.9 |
  FC Cologne | 4 | 2 | 6.2 | −4.2 |
  Bayern Munich | 6 | 13 | 16.1 | −3.1 |
  Darmstadt | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | −2.3 |
  Werder Bremen | 6 | 8 | 9.8 | −1.8 |
  FC Heidenheim | 102 | 97 | 98.7 | −1.7 |
  Freiburg | 6 | 10 | 10.5 | −0.5 |
  Mainz 05 | 6 | 10 | 10.1 | −0.1 |
| Holstein Kiel | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| St. Pauli | 4 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| Wolfsburg | 6 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
FC Heidenheim's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 56 | 62 | 23 | 24 | 3.07 | 3.32 | 0.187 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 59 | 24 | 15 | 3.05 | 2.97 | 0.215 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 56 | 41 | 22 | 35 | 3.32 | 3.09 | 0.213 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.