All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 34 league matches of Holstein Kiel since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 56 times in 100; it said 55. Draws: said 23, happened 21 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches34each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened56 in 100Vesta said 55
Draws21 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match3.79Vesta expected 3.22
Likeliest score happened9 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 37 | 25.0 | 27.0 | +2.1 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Holstein Kiel
Sat 5 Oct 2024 · Bundesliga8 in 100
Wolfsburg 2-2 Holstein KielFri 24 Jan 2025 · Bundesliga21 in 100
Union Berlin 0-1 Holstein KielSun 2 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga21 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Holstein KielSat 19 Apr 2025 · Bundesliga21 in 100
Augsburg 1-3 Holstein KielSun 4 May 2025 · Bundesliga22 in 100
Mainz 05 1-1 Holstein KielSat 5 Apr 2025 · Bundesliga22 in 100- Holstein Kiel 2-2 Bochum
Sun 9 Feb 2025 · Bundesliga23 in 100 - Holstein Kiel 4-2 Borussia Dortmund
Tue 14 Jan 2025 · Bundesliga23 in 100 - Holstein Kiel 2-2 VfB Stuttgart
Sat 8 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga24 in 100 - Bochum 2-2 Holstein KielSat 21 Sep 2024 · Bundesliga25 in 100
- Holstein Kiel 0-2 WolfsburgSat 31 Aug 2024 · Bundesliga28 in 100
- Holstein Kiel 1-2 St. Pauli
Sat 12 Apr 2025 · Bundesliga34 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Holstein KielSat 5 Oct 2024 · home win said89 in 100
- Wolfsburg 2-2 Holstein KielFri 24 Jan 2025 · home win said64 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Holstein KielSat 19 Apr 2025 · home win said64 in 100
- Mainz 05 1-1 Holstein KielSat 5 Apr 2025 · home win said62 in 100
- Holstein Kiel 2-2 BochumSun 9 Feb 2025 · home win said58 in 100
- Holstein Kiel 2-2 VfB StuttgartSat 8 Mar 2025 · away win said56 in 100
- Union Berlin 0-1 Holstein KielSun 2 Mar 2025 · home win said54 in 100
- Holstein Kiel 4-2 Borussia DortmundTue 14 Jan 2025 · away win said53 in 100
- Augsburg 1-3 Holstein KielSun 4 May 2025 · home win said51 in 100
- Bochum 2-2 Holstein KielSat 21 Sep 2024 · home win said48 in 100
- Holstein Kiel 0-2 WolfsburgSat 31 Aug 2024 · home win said45 in 100
- Holstein Kiel 1-3 Hoffenheim
Sat 18 Jan 2025 · home win said38 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  St. Pauli | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
  Werder Bremen | 2 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
  Hoffenheim | 2 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 |
  Freiburg | 2 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
  Bayern Munich | 2 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
  Wolfsburg | 2 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
  Mainz 05 | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
  FC Heidenheim | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
  Union Berlin | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | −0.2 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 4 | 4.2 | −0.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Holstein Kiel | 34 | 25 | 32.4 | −7.4 |
  Augsburg | 2 | 0 | 3.2 | −3.2 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 3 | 4.3 | −1.3 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 4 | 5.1 | −1.1 |
  Bochum | 2 | 2 | 2.5 | −0.5 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 2 | 3 | 3.4 | −0.4 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 4 | 4.2 | −0.2 |
| Union Berlin | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | −0.2 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| FC Heidenheim | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| Mainz 05 | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| Wolfsburg | 2 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Holstein Kiel's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 56 | 23 | 21 | 3.22 | 3.79 | 0.202 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.