All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 68 league matches of St. Pauli since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 24 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches68each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.32Vesta expected 2.63
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 20 | 16.5 | 20.0 | +3.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 86 | 27.0 | 25.6 | −1.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 36 | 33.7 | 36.1 | +2.5 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 32 | 44.2 | 50.0 | +5.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
VfB Stuttgart 0-1 St. Pauli
Sat 21 Dec 2024 · Bundesliga14 in 100
Hoffenheim 0-1 St. PauliSat 28 Feb 2026 · Bundesliga16 in 100- St. Pauli 2-1 VfB StuttgartSat 7 Feb 2026 · Bundesliga19 in 100
Freiburg 0-3 St. PauliSat 28 Sep 2024 · Bundesliga19 in 100- St. Pauli 0-2 Bochum
Sat 17 May 2025 · Bundesliga21 in 100 
Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 St. PauliSun 11 May 2025 · Bundesliga25 in 100- St. Pauli 3-3 Borussia Dortmund
Sat 23 Aug 2025 · Bundesliga25 in 100 - St. Pauli 1-1 RasenBallsport Leipzig
Tue 27 Jan 2026 · Bundesliga26 in 100 - St. Pauli 0-3 Mainz 05
Sat 5 Oct 2024 · Bundesliga27 in 100 
Wolfsburg 1-1 St. PauliSat 8 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga27 in 100- St. Pauli 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen
Sun 20 Apr 2025 · Bundesliga27 in 100 - St. Pauli 0-1 FreiburgSat 15 Feb 2025 · Bundesliga27 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 St. PauliSat 21 Dec 2024 · home win said64 in 100
- Hoffenheim 0-1 St. PauliSat 28 Feb 2026 · home win said60 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 St. PauliSun 11 May 2025 · home win said57 in 100
- St. Pauli 1-1 RasenBallsport LeipzigTue 27 Jan 2026 · away win said56 in 100
- St. Pauli 3-3 Borussia DortmundSat 23 Aug 2025 · away win said56 in 100
- St. Pauli 2-1 VfB StuttgartSat 7 Feb 2026 · away win said56 in 100
- Freiburg 0-3 St. PauliSat 28 Sep 2024 · home win said55 in 100
- St. Pauli 1-1 Bayer LeverkusenSun 20 Apr 2025 · away win said54 in 100
- Wolfsburg 1-1 St. PauliSat 8 Mar 2025 · home win said53 in 100
- St. Pauli 0-2 BochumSat 17 May 2025 · home win said52 in 100
- St. Pauli 1-1 Augsburg
Sat 1 Feb 2025 · home win said50 in 100 - St. Pauli 0-0 RasenBallsport LeipzigSun 22 Sep 2024 · away win said49 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 4 | 10 | 5.8 | +4.2 |
  Bochum | 2 | 6 | 2.1 | +3.9 |
  Mainz 05 | 4 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 |
  Freiburg | 4 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
  Wolfsburg | 4 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 |
  Augsburg | 4 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 |
  Bayern Munich | 4 | 12 | 10.2 | +1.8 |
  Werder Bremen | 4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
  Union Berlin | 4 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  St. Pauli | 68 | 58 | 75.2 | −17.2 |
  Hoffenheim | 4 | 3 | 6.0 | −3.0 |
  Holstein Kiel | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | −2.3 |
  Hamburger SV | 2 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  FC Cologne | 2 | 2 | 3.2 | −1.2 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 6 | 7.2 | −1.2 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 4 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 |
  FC Heidenheim | 4 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| Union Berlin | 4 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| Werder Bremen | 4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| Bayern Munich | 4 | 12 | 10.2 | +1.8 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
St. Pauli's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 59 | 27 | 24 | 2.62 | 2.62 | 0.193 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 44 | 27 | 24 | 2.63 | 2.03 | 0.222 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.