Vesta Brief · today
Monday 12 October 2026
- 4 matches with Vesta's forecast; of the 1 with a result so far, the likeliest result came true in 1.
- Sunday 11 October: the likeliest result came true in 10 of 17 (Vesta expected 7.8).
- Biggest move: Hamburger SV, bottom three 74% to 47%.
4
matches with Vesta's forecast
10/17
likeliest results that came true, Sunday 11 October
−27
biggest move: Hamburger SV, bottom 3
Serie A2
Premier League1
Source: Vesta's forecast log, the last forecast published before each kick-off, never edited. Results: the checked results on record (the live feed's final score, provisional, for 1).
What today can change
a team's season chance after each result · Vesta
Coventry, bottom three chanceCoventry v Newcastle United, 21:00 · now 51%
Home win41%Draw53%Away win58%
Levante, bottom three chanceLevante v Sevilla, 21:00 · now 17%
Home win12%Draw18%Away win23%
Udinese, bottom three chanceTorino v Udinese, 20:45 · now 17%
Home win22%Draw17%Away win11%
Source: Vesta's season projection, 10,000 simulated seasons for each result. Model output: chances, not certainties.
Hamburger SVbottom 3 · Bundesliga
74% → 47%
−27
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four · Bundesliga
36% → 61%
+25
Napolitop four · Serie A
29% → 50%
+21
Liverpooltop four · Premier League
59% → 39%
−20
Rennestop four · Ligue 1
26% → 45%
+18
Chelseatop four · Premier League
19% → 36%
+17
Union Berlinbottom 3 · Bundesliga
67% → 50%
−17
Nicebottom 3 · Ligue 1
45% → 28%
−17
now, better for the sidenow, worse for itbeforeSource: Vesta's season projection, 10,000 simulated seasons: data to Sun 4 Oct against data to Sun 11 Oct. Model output.