Bundesliga

Every remaining match simulated 10,000 times with Vesta’s strengths of today, added to the table as it stands. Sorted by average finishing position.

Bundesliga 2026-27: projected final table

#	Team	Now	Final ptsPts	Range	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3Bot. 3	Every position
1	Bayern Munich	10	81	74–89	93%	>99%	–
2	Borussia Dortmund	12	67	59–76	6%	94%	–
3	Bayer Leverkusen	7	61	53–70	1%	79%	–
4	Freiburg	10	53	45–62	<1%	33%	<1%
5	RasenBallsport Leipzig	6	53	44–62	<1%	32%	<1%
6	Mainz 05	7	52	43–61	<1%	26%	<1%
7	VfB Stuttgart	3	49	40–58	–	15%	1%
8	Hoffenheim	3	45	36–54	–	5%	5%
9	Elversberg	7	45	36–54	<1%	5%	5%
10	Augsburg	7	44	35–52	–	4%	6%
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	44	35–53	–	3%	6%
12	Werder Bremen	7	41	33–50	–	2%	12%
13	Schalke 04	5	41	32–49	–	1%	14%
14	FC Cologne	4	40	31–49	–	<1%	17%
15	Paderborn	4	38	30–47	–	<1%	23%
16	Borussia M.Gladbach	0	32	24–40	–	<1%	62%
17	Hamburger SV	3	30	22–39	–	<1%	73%
18	Union Berlin	1	30	22–38	–	<1%	74%

Range: 8 in 10 simulated seasons end between these points. Strengths stay as they are today: injuries, transfers and changes of coach are not in it, nor are points deductions. Computed Sat 3 Oct 2026, on data up to Sun 20 Sep 2026.

#	Team	W	D	L	Goals for	Range	Against	Range	Diff.
1	Bayern Munich	25	5	3	104	93–116	36	29–43	+68
2	Borussia Dortmund	20	7	7	69	60–79	40	32–48	+29
3	Bayer Leverkusen	18	8	8	72	63–82	46	38–54	+26
4	Freiburg	15	9	10	60	52–69	49	40–57	+12
5	RasenBallsport Leipzig	15	7	12	65	56–74	52	44–61	+13
6	Mainz 05	15	8	11	65	56–75	56	47–65	+10
7	VfB Stuttgart	14	7	13	63	54–72	58	50–67	+5
8	Hoffenheim	13	7	14	59	50–68	62	53–71	-3
9	Elversberg	12	8	14	56	47–64	61	52–70	-6
10	Augsburg	12	8	14	58	50–67	61	52–70	-3
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	12	9	13	58	50–67	64	55–73	-6
12	Werder Bremen	11	8	15	49	41–57	61	52–70	-12
13	Schalke 04	10	9	14	47	39–56	58	49–67	-11
14	FC Cologne	11	8	15	52	44–61	66	57–75	-13
15	Paderborn	10	9	16	43	36–51	57	48–66	-14
16	Borussia M.Gladbach	8	7	19	49	41–57	76	67–86	-27
17	Hamburger SV	8	7	19	39	32–46	74	65–83	-35
18	Union Berlin	7	8	19	43	35–50	76	67–86	-33

Averages over the simulated seasons (the matches played included), so a row may not add up to the matches of a season after rounding.

Goals at the end of the season: the goals of the simulated rest of the season shared among each team's players by their recent part in its attack.

Assists are shared the same way, by each player's recent part in creating chances.

The chances that moved most, in percentage points: the projection now against the one made with the data of a week of matches ago.

• −18RasenBallsport Leipzig: top 4 50% → 32%
• +15Union Berlin: bottom 3 59% → 74%
• +13Bayer Leverkusen: top 4 66% → 79%
• −13Werder Bremen: bottom 3 25% → 12%
• −12Paderborn: bottom 3 35% → 23%
• +10Mainz 05: top 4 16% → 26%

Expected points: what the chances of every match (expected goals) were worth, on average. A team above them took more points than its chances, from finishing, goalkeeping or luck.

Team	Points	Expected	Difference
Borussia Dortmund	12	8.0	+4.0
Elversberg	7	3.6	+3.4
Augsburg	7	4.7	+2.3
Werder Bremen	7	4.9	+2.1
Freiburg	10	8.4	+1.6
Paderborn	4	3.0	+1.0
Schalke 04	5	4.3	+0.7
Hamburger SV	3	3.0	0.0
Bayern Munich	10	10.5	−0.5
Eintracht Frankfurt	5	5.7	−0.7
VfB Stuttgart	3	3.8	−0.8
Mainz 05	7	7.9	−0.9
Union Berlin	1	2.4	−1.4
RasenBallsport Leipzig	6	7.5	−1.5
FC Cologne	4	5.9	−1.9
Bayer Leverkusen	7	9.3	−2.3
Hoffenheim	3	5.8	−2.8
Borussia M.Gladbach	0	3.2	−3.2