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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 76 league matches of Benevento since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 63 times in 100; it said 57. Draws: said 22, happened 20 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches76each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened63 in 100Vesta said 57
Draws20 in 100Vesta said 22
Goals a match3.05Vesta expected 3.03
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 12

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
10–20 in 1003815.07.9−7.2
20–30 in 1008325.522.9−2.6
30–40 in 1002034.530.0−4.5
40–50 in 1002744.551.9+7.4

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Juventus 0-1 BeneventoSun 21 Mar 2021 · Serie A7 in 100
  2. AC Milan 0-1 BeneventoSat 21 Apr 2018 · Serie A11 in 100
  3. Fiorentina 0-1 BeneventoSun 22 Nov 2020 · Serie A18 in 100
  4. Benevento 0-0 RomaSun 21 Feb 2021 · Serie A19 in 100
  5. Benevento 1-1 JuventusSat 28 Nov 2020 · Serie A20 in 100
  6. Benevento 3-2 SampdoriaSat 6 Jan 2018 · Serie A21 in 100
  7. Benevento 2-2 AC MilanSun 3 Dec 2017 · Serie A22 in 100
  8. Sassuolo 2-2 BeneventoSun 15 Apr 2018 · Serie A23 in 100
  9. Benevento 0-1 BolognaSat 26 Aug 2017 · Serie A23 in 100
  10. Benevento 1-1 CrotoneSun 16 May 2021 · Serie A26 in 100
  11. Torino 1-1 BeneventoSun 23 May 2021 · Serie A26 in 100
  12. Benevento 1-1 LazioTue 15 Dec 2020 · Serie A26 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Juventus 0-1 BeneventoSun 21 Mar 2021 · home win said77 in 100
  2. AC Milan 0-1 BeneventoSat 21 Apr 2018 · home win said71 in 100
  3. Benevento 0-0 RomaSun 21 Feb 2021 · away win said69 in 100
  4. Benevento 1-1 JuventusSat 28 Nov 2020 · away win said66 in 100
  5. Benevento 2-2 AC MilanSun 3 Dec 2017 · away win said63 in 100
  6. Fiorentina 0-1 BeneventoSun 22 Nov 2020 · home win said59 in 100
  7. Sassuolo 2-2 BeneventoSun 15 Apr 2018 · home win said57 in 100
  8. Benevento 3-2 SampdoriaSat 6 Jan 2018 · away win said56 in 100
  9. Torino 1-1 BeneventoSun 23 May 2021 · home win said50 in 100
  10. Benevento 0-1 BolognaSat 26 Aug 2017 · home win said50 in 100
  11. Benevento 1-1 LazioTue 15 Dec 2020 · away win said49 in 100
  12. Benevento 0-3 SpeziaSat 7 Nov 2020 · home win said49 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
SPAL 2013262.9+3.1
Cagliari496.0+3.0
Verona496.0+3.0
Inter4129.2+2.8
Sassuolo4107.3+2.7
Atalanta4129.6+2.4
Napoli4129.8+2.2
Crotone475.6+1.4
Fiorentina497.6+1.4
Spezia242.7+1.3
Lazio4108.7+1.3
Bologna475.7+1.3
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Benevento765467.8−13.8
Juventus4710.1−3.1
Sampdoria447.0−3.0
Genoa446.7−2.7
AC Milan478.9−1.9
Parma223.1−1.1
Chievo233.3−0.3
Udinese476.8+0.2
Roma4109.5+0.5
Torino486.9+1.1
Bologna475.7+1.3
Lazio4108.7+1.3

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Benevento's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2020-21Serie A38535324322.933.030.182
2017-18Serie A3861742183.143.080.156

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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