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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 196 league matches of Parma since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 44 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 25, happened 29 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	22	8.0	4.5	−3.5
10–20 in 100	83	15.6	20.5	+4.9
20–30 in 100	219	25.7	30.6	+4.9
30–40 in 100	98	33.6	34.7	+1.1
40–50 in 100	68	44.7	33.8	−10.8
50–60 in 100	47	54.6	42.6	−12.1
60–70 in 100	22	65.5	59.1	−6.4
70–80 in 100	26	74.0	73.1	−0.9

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Cagliari	11	24	14.7	+9.3
SPAL 2013	4	12	5.4	+6.6
Crotone	2	6	2.1	+3.9
Roma	10	24	20.5	+3.5
Sampdoria	6	13	10.1	+2.9
Lazio	10	23	20.5	+2.5
Atalanta	10	25	22.6	+2.4
Juventus	11	26	24.1	+1.9
Verona	8	13	11.3	+1.7
Como	5	11	9.6	+1.4
Cremonese	2	4	2.7	+1.3
Frosinone	2	4	2.8	+1.2

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Fiorentina	10	9	18.2	−9.2
Sassuolo	8	6	13.5	−7.5
Genoa	11	11	15.7	−4.7
Napoli	10	18	21.7	−3.7
Torino	10	13	16.0	−3.0
Pisa	2	0	2.7	−2.7
Parma	196	195	197.6	−2.6
AC Milan	10	18	20.4	−2.4
Monza	3	2	4.0	−2.0
Inter	11	24	25.7	−1.7
Venezia	2	1	2.7	−1.7
Bologna	10	16	17.3	−1.3

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Parma's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Serie A	6	55	67	25	17	2.55	2.33	0.131
2025-26	Serie A	38	50	42	28	32	2.42	1.95	0.220
2024-25	Serie A	38	51	29	26	39	2.77	2.68	0.239
2020-21	Serie A	38	54	55	24	29	2.91	3.21	0.176
2019-20	Serie A	38	53	47	24	18	2.86	2.97	0.233
2018-19	Serie A	38	55	45	24	29	2.84	2.68	0.207

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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