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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 304 league matches of Verona since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 26, happened 27 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	26	6.9	3.8	−3.0
10–20 in 100	111	15.7	13.5	−2.2
20–30 in 100	361	26.0	26.0	0.0
30–40 in 100	171	34.1	32.2	−2.0
40–50 in 100	110	44.9	45.5	+0.6
50–60 in 100	61	54.6	59.0	+4.4
60–70 in 100	47	64.9	70.2	+5.3

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
AC Milan	16	41	32.7	+8.3
Sassuolo	14	28	21.3	+6.7
Sampdoria	10	20	13.4	+6.6
Inter	16	42	36.7	+5.3
Genoa	14	25	20.1	+4.9
Salernitana	6	10	5.6	+4.4
Torino	16	29	24.8	+4.2
Lazio	16	34	29.8	+4.2
Roma	16	35	31.5	+3.5
Crotone	4	7	4.0	+3.0
Monza	6	11	8.4	+2.6
Como	4	10	7.4	+2.6

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Verona	304	297	331.8	−34.8
Lecce	10	7	12.8	−5.8
Venezia	4	1	4.5	−3.5
Empoli	8	6	9.4	−3.4
Cremonese	4	3	5.1	−2.1
Benevento	4	3	4.9	−1.9
Fiorentina	16	25	26.8	−1.8
Juventus	16	32	33.8	−1.8
SPAL 2013	4	4	5.4	−1.4
Spezia	6	5	6.3	−1.3
Cagliari	14	17	18.3	−1.3
Udinese	16	22	23.1	−1.1

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Verona's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2025-26	Serie A	38	50	53	28	32	2.37	2.26	0.194
2024-25	Serie A	38	51	47	27	18	2.54	2.63	0.211
2023-24	Serie A	38	51	55	27	29	2.45	2.34	0.182
2022-23	Serie A	38	50	61	26	26	2.67	2.37	0.174
2021-22	Serie A	38	51	50	26	29	2.84	3.26	0.203
2020-21	Serie A	38	49	47	26	34	2.77	2.39	0.215
2019-20	Serie A	38	50	45	26	34	2.73	2.58	0.190
2017-18	Serie A	38	60	66	21	11	3.09	2.84	0.172

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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