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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 38 league matches of Brescia since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 63 times in 100; it said 56. Draws: said 23, happened 18 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches38each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened63 in 100Vesta said 56
Draws18 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match3.00Vesta expected 3.09
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 12

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
20–30 in 1004224.723.8−0.9

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. SPAL 2013 0-1 BresciaSun 8 Dec 2019 · Serie A20 in 100
  2. Cagliari 0-1 BresciaSun 25 Aug 2019 · Serie A20 in 100
  3. Fiorentina 1-1 BresciaMon 22 Jun 2020 · Serie A22 in 100
  4. Brescia 1-1 SampdoriaSat 1 Aug 2020 · Serie A24 in 100
  5. Brescia 2-2 CagliariSun 19 Jan 2020 · Serie A26 in 100
  6. Parma 1-1 BresciaSun 22 Dec 2019 · Serie A26 in 100
  7. Brescia 0-0 FiorentinaMon 21 Oct 2019 · Serie A26 in 100
  8. Brescia 2-2 GenoaSat 27 Jun 2020 · Serie A26 in 100
  9. Brescia 1-1 UdineseSun 9 Feb 2020 · Serie A27 in 100
  10. Brescia 2-0 VeronaSun 5 Jul 2020 · Serie A29 in 100
  11. Udinese 0-1 BresciaSat 21 Sep 2019 · Serie A30 in 100
  12. Brescia 0-4 TorinoSat 9 Nov 2019 · Serie A32 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Fiorentina 1-1 BresciaMon 22 Jun 2020 · home win said63 in 100
  2. SPAL 2013 0-1 BresciaSun 8 Dec 2019 · home win said55 in 100
  3. Cagliari 0-1 BresciaSun 25 Aug 2019 · home win said55 in 100
  4. Brescia 1-1 SampdoriaSat 1 Aug 2020 · away win said54 in 100
  5. Parma 1-1 BresciaSun 22 Dec 2019 · home win said49 in 100
  6. Brescia 0-0 FiorentinaMon 21 Oct 2019 · away win said49 in 100
  7. Brescia 2-0 VeronaSun 5 Jul 2020 · away win said45 in 100
  8. Brescia 2-2 GenoaSat 27 Jun 2020 · away win said43 in 100
  9. Udinese 0-1 BresciaSat 21 Sep 2019 · home win said43 in 100
  10. Brescia 3-0 LecceSat 14 Dec 2019 · away win said42 in 100
  11. Brescia 1-1 UdineseSun 9 Feb 2020 · home win said40 in 100
  12. Brescia 0-4 TorinoSat 9 Nov 2019 · home win said40 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Torino263.1+2.9
Sassuolo263.3+2.7
Bologna263.7+2.3
AC Milan263.7+2.3
Inter264.5+1.5
Roma264.5+1.5
Juventus264.5+1.5
Napoli264.5+1.5
Lazio264.7+1.3
Atalanta265.1+0.9
Genoa243.2+0.8
Parma243.3+0.7
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Brescia382533.9−8.9
SPAL 2013203.2−3.2
Cagliari213.3−2.3
Fiorentina223.8−1.8
Udinese212.8−1.8
Lecce233.3−0.3
Verona233.2−0.2
Sampdoria243.8+0.2
Parma243.3+0.7
Genoa243.2+0.8
Atalanta265.1+0.9
Lazio264.7+1.3

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Brescia's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2019-20Serie A38566323183.093.000.163

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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