All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 73 league matches of Hamburger SV since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 25, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches73each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.68Vesta expected 2.87
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 33 | 15.2 | 18.2 | +3.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 82 | 26.3 | 26.8 | +0.6 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 37 | 34.6 | 37.8 | +3.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 24 | 44.1 | 20.8 | −23.3 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga14 in 100- Hamburger SV 2-2 Bayern Munich
Sat 31 Jan 2026 · Bundesliga14 in 100 
FC Cologne 1-3 Hamburger SVFri 25 Aug 2017 · Bundesliga17 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Hamburger SVSat 27 Jan 2018 · Bundesliga17 in 100
Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SVSat 16 May 2026 · Bundesliga17 in 100
Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Hamburger SVSat 2 May 2026 · Bundesliga19 in 100- Hamburger SV 3-2 Schalke 04
Sat 7 Apr 2018 · Bundesliga21 in 100 
Wolfsburg 1-3 Hamburger SVSat 28 Apr 2018 · Bundesliga23 in 100
VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Hamburger SVSat 31 Mar 2018 · Bundesliga23 in 100- Hamburger SV 1-1 Borussia Dortmund
Sat 8 Nov 2025 · Bundesliga24 in 100 - Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB StuttgartSun 30 Nov 2025 · Bundesliga25 in 100
Borussia M.Gladbach 0-0 Hamburger SVSun 24 Aug 2025 · Bundesliga25 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Hamburger SV 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 31 Jan 2026 · away win said80 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Hamburger SVSat 27 Jan 2018 · home win said75 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SVSat 16 May 2026 · home win said72 in 100
- Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SVSat 10 Oct 2026 · home win said66 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Hamburger SVSat 31 Mar 2018 · home win said63 in 100
- FC Cologne 1-3 Hamburger SVFri 25 Aug 2017 · home win said59 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Hamburger SVSat 2 May 2026 · home win said58 in 100
- Hamburger SV 1-1 Borussia DortmundSat 8 Nov 2025 · away win said56 in 100
- Hamburger SV 3-2 Schalke 04Sat 7 Apr 2018 · away win said53 in 100
- Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB StuttgartSun 30 Nov 2025 · away win said49 in 100
- Wolfsburg 1-3 Hamburger SVSat 28 Apr 2018 · home win said49 in 100
- Hamburger SV 3-0 HoffenheimSun 26 Nov 2017 · away win said48 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Hamburger SV | 73 | 75 | 71.8 | +3.2 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 5 | 13 | 9.9 | +3.1 |
  Hertha Berlin | 2 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 13 | 11.4 | +1.6 |
  St. Pauli | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
  Augsburg | 4 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
  Werder Bremen | 4 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
  Hannover 96 | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
  Mainz 05 | 5 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
  FC Cologne | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | −0.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 4 | 7.7 | −3.7 |
  Freiburg | 4 | 4 | 6.3 | −2.3 |
  FC Heidenheim | 2 | 0 | 2.2 | −2.2 |
  Union Berlin | 2 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  Wolfsburg | 4 | 4 | 5.7 | −1.7 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 4 | 5 | 6.6 | −1.6 |
  Schalke 04 | 2 | 3 | 4.0 | −1.0 |
  Hoffenheim | 5 | 9 | 9.8 | −0.8 |
  Bayern Munich | 4 | 10 | 10.5 | −0.5 |
| FC Cologne | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | −0.2 |
| Mainz 05 | 5 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Hamburger SV's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 57 | 60 | 22 | 0 | 3.20 | 4.00 | 0.251 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 41 | 25 | 32 | 2.96 | 2.76 | 0.204 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 59 | 24 | 21 | 2.75 | 2.41 | 0.179 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.