All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 46 league matches of Malaga since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 59 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 26, happened 20 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches46each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened59 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws20 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.22Vesta expected 2.61
Likeliest score happened20 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 52 | 26.1 | 21.2 | −4.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 29 | 33.9 | 31.0 | −2.9 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Real Sociedad 0-2 Malaga
Sun 10 Dec 2017 · La Liga18 in 100- Malaga 1-3 Las Palmas
Mon 11 Sep 2017 · La Liga20 in 100 
Celta Vigo 0-0 MalagaSun 18 Mar 2018 · La Liga25 in 100- Malaga 0-0 Levante
Fri 1 Dec 2017 · La Liga25 in 100 - Malaga 0-1 Eibar
Mon 21 Aug 2017 · La Liga25 in 100 - Malaga 0-3 Alaves
Sun 6 May 2018 · La Liga26 in 100 - Malaga 0-2 Real Betis
Mon 18 Dec 2017 · La Liga26 in 100 - Eibar 1-1 MalagaMon 22 Jan 2018 · La Liga26 in 100
- Malaga 0-1 Espanyol
Mon 8 Jan 2018 · La Liga27 in 100 - Malaga 0-0 Girona
Sat 27 Jan 2018 · La Liga29 in 100 - Malaga 0-0 LevanteSun 6 Sep 2026 · La Liga29 in 100
- Celta Vigo 1-1 MalagaSun 13 Sep 2026 · La Liga30 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Real Sociedad 0-2 MalagaSun 10 Dec 2017 · home win said59 in 100
- Celta Vigo 0-0 MalagaSun 18 Mar 2018 · home win said57 in 100
- Eibar 1-1 MalagaMon 22 Jan 2018 · home win said55 in 100
- Malaga 1-3 Las PalmasMon 11 Sep 2017 · home win said55 in 100
- Malaga 0-0 LevanteFri 1 Dec 2017 · home win said53 in 100
- Malaga 0-2 Real BetisMon 18 Dec 2017 · home win said47 in 100
- Malaga 0-1 EibarMon 21 Aug 2017 · home win said47 in 100
- Malaga 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna
Mon 24 Aug 2026 · home win said45 in 100 - Malaga 0-3 AlavesSun 6 May 2018 · home win said45 in 100
- Celta Vigo 1-1 MalagaSun 13 Sep 2026 · home win said45 in 100
- Malaga 0-1 EspanyolMon 8 Jan 2018 · home win said43 in 100
- Malaga 2-0 Real SociedadSun 22 Apr 2018 · away win said41 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Getafe | 3 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 |
  Las Palmas | 2 | 6 | 2.3 | +3.7 |
  Alaves | 2 | 6 | 2.7 | +3.3 |
  Leganes | 2 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
  Real Betis | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
  Atletico Madrid | 3 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
  Espanyol | 3 | 7 | 4.2 | +2.8 |
  Valencia | 2 | 6 | 3.3 | +2.7 |
  Sevilla | 2 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
  Real Madrid | 3 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
  Levante | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
  Eibar | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Malaga | 46 | 24 | 49.1 | −25.1 |
  Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 3.5 | −3.5 |
  Celta Vigo | 3 | 2 | 4.8 | −2.8 |
  Deportivo La Coruna | 3 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
  Athletic Club | 2 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
  Barcelona | 2 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
  Villarreal | 3 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
  Girona | 2 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
| Eibar | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| Levante | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
| Real Madrid | 3 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| Sevilla | 2 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 49 | 50 | 27 | 50 | 2.59 | 2.12 | 0.124 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 52 | 61 | 26 | 13 | 2.62 | 2.24 | 0.197 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.