All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 350 league matches of Real Sociedad since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 54 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened54 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.57Vesta expected 2.55
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 110 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 0.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 431 | 26.2 | 22.3 | −3.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 229 | 33.9 | 36.2 | +2.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 131 | 44.9 | 50.4 | +5.5 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 91 | 54.6 | 57.1 | +2.5 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 41 | 64.1 | 65.9 | +1.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Valladolid
Sun 5 Feb 2023 · La Liga10 in 100- Real Sociedad 1-2 Levante
Wed 30 Oct 2019 · La Liga13 in 100 
Real Madrid 0-2 Real SociedadSun 6 Jan 2019 · La Liga14 in 100
Barcelona 1-2 Real SociedadSat 20 May 2023 · La Liga14 in 100
Granada 1-0 Real SociedadSun 14 Mar 2021 · La Liga16 in 100- Real Sociedad 0-1 Valencia
Tue 29 Sep 2020 · La Liga16 in 100 - Real Sociedad 0-1 Osasuna
Sat 10 Feb 2024 · La Liga17 in 100 - Real Sociedad 0-2 OsasunaSun 27 Oct 2024 · La Liga18 in 100
- Real Sociedad 0-2 Malaga
Sun 10 Dec 2017 · La Liga18 in 100 - Real Sociedad 2-1 BarcelonaSun 18 Jan 2026 · La Liga18 in 100
- Real Sociedad 1-2 Real ValladolidSun 9 Dec 2018 · La Liga18 in 100
- Real Sociedad 1-3 Villarreal
Fri 23 Feb 2024 · La Liga18 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Real Sociedad 2-2 Almeria
Sun 14 Apr 2024 · home win said71 in 100 - Real Sociedad 0-1 Real ValladolidSun 5 Feb 2023 · home win said70 in 100
- Real Sociedad 2-2 Las Palmas
Sun 26 Nov 2017 · home win said69 in 100 - Real Sociedad 0-0 Las PalmasSun 15 Dec 2024 · home win said68 in 100
- Real Sociedad 1-2 LevanteWed 30 Oct 2019 · home win said67 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-2 Real SociedadSun 6 Jan 2019 · home win said67 in 100
- Real Sociedad 1-1 OsasunaSun 3 Jan 2021 · home win said64 in 100
- Real Sociedad 0-0 SD Huesca
Sun 27 Jan 2019 · home win said63 in 100 - Barcelona 1-2 Real SociedadSat 20 May 2023 · home win said62 in 100
- Granada 1-0 Real SociedadSun 14 Mar 2021 · away win said61 in 100
- Real Sociedad 0-0 Cadiz
Fri 3 Mar 2023 · home win said61 in 100 - Real Sociedad 1-1 Girona
Sat 12 Aug 2023 · home win said61 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Atletico Madrid | 19 | 41 | 30.7 | +10.3 |
  Barcelona | 18 | 43 | 35.3 | +7.7 |
  Getafe | 18 | 28 | 20.4 | +7.6 |
  Real Madrid | 19 | 42 | 36.2 | +5.8 |
  Valencia | 19 | 28 | 22.9 | +5.1 |
  Sevilla | 18 | 28 | 23.6 | +4.4 |
  Real Betis | 19 | 28 | 23.7 | +4.3 |
  Real Valladolid | 10 | 13 | 8.8 | +4.2 |
  Malaga | 2 | 6 | 2.0 | +4.0 |
  Levante | 12 | 15 | 11.7 | +3.3 |
  Alaves | 16 | 19 | 15.9 | +3.1 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Sociedad | 350 | 515 | 524.8 | −9.8 |
  Elche | 9 | 1 | 8.1 | −7.1 |
  Mallorca | 12 | 7 | 12.3 | −5.3 |
  Cadiz | 8 | 2 | 6.9 | −4.9 |
  Athletic Club | 18 | 20 | 24.7 | −4.7 |
  Girona | 12 | 10 | 14.6 | −4.6 |
  Espanyol | 15 | 12 | 15.7 | −3.7 |
  Eibar | 8 | 6 | 9.2 | −3.2 |
  Deportivo La Coruna | 3 | 0 | 3.2 | −3.2 |
  Osasuna | 14 | 12 | 14.5 | −2.5 |
  Celta Vigo | 19 | 19 | 21.4 | −2.4 |
  Las Palmas | 6 | 3 | 5.0 | −2.0 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Real Sociedad's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 47 | 62 | 27 | 12 | 2.75 | 3.38 | 0.202 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 42 | 28 | 34 | 2.57 | 3.16 | 0.203 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 50 | 29 | 18 | 2.37 | 2.13 | 0.230 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 47 | 27 | 32 | 2.49 | 2.37 | 0.188 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 61 | 28 | 21 | 2.46 | 2.26 | 0.216 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 61 | 28 | 29 | 2.48 | 2.03 | 0.164 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 61 | 27 | 29 | 2.49 | 2.55 | 0.187 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 50 | 27 | 21 | 2.62 | 2.74 | 0.225 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 45 | 27 | 29 | 2.63 | 2.39 | 0.224 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 66 | 25 | 18 | 2.82 | 3.29 | 0.196 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.