All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 274 league matches of Espanyol since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 48 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 29 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches274each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened48 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.50Vesta expected 2.57
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 21 | 6.6 | 9.5 | +3.0 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 80 | 15.8 | 17.5 | +1.7 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 307 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 0.0 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 213 | 33.7 | 31.9 | −1.8 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 100 | 44.9 | 51.0 | +6.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 54 | 54.5 | 48.1 | −6.4 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 26 | 63.5 | 57.7 | −5.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Espanyol 1-0 Real Madrid
Sat 1 Feb 2025 · La Liga8 in 100
Atletico Madrid 0-2 EspanyolSun 6 May 2018 · La Liga9 in 100- Espanyol 1-0 Real MadridTue 27 Feb 2018 · La Liga11 in 100
Barcelona 1-1 EspanyolSat 31 Dec 2022 · La Liga11 in 100
Villarreal 1-2 EspanyolSun 19 Jan 2020 · La Liga13 in 100
Rayo Vallecano 0-4 EspanyolFri 4 Apr 2025 · La Liga14 in 100- Espanyol 2-1 Real MadridSun 3 Oct 2021 · La Liga16 in 100
- Espanyol 1-1 BarcelonaSun 4 Feb 2018 · La Liga16 in 100
Athletic Club 0-1 EspanyolSun 4 Sep 2022 · La Liga16 in 100- Espanyol 2-1 Atletico MadridSun 17 Aug 2025 · La Liga17 in 100
Celta Vigo 0-2 EspanyolSat 12 Apr 2025 · La Liga17 in 100
Girona 0-2 EspanyolSun 22 Apr 2018 · La Liga19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Barcelona 1-1 EspanyolSat 31 Dec 2022 · home win said85 in 100
- Espanyol 1-1 BarcelonaSun 4 Feb 2018 · away win said76 in 100
- Espanyol 1-0 Real MadridSat 1 Feb 2025 · away win said75 in 100
- Espanyol 1-0 Real MadridTue 27 Feb 2018 · away win said71 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-2 EspanyolSun 6 May 2018 · home win said70 in 100
- Villarreal 1-2 EspanyolSun 19 Jan 2020 · home win said68 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-0 EspanyolWed 28 Aug 2024 · home win said66 in 100
- Espanyol 2-2 BarcelonaSat 4 Jan 2020 · away win said65 in 100
Valencia 0-0 EspanyolSun 17 Feb 2019 · home win said64 in 100- Espanyol 3-3 Atletico MadridWed 24 May 2023 · away win said63 in 100
- Villarreal 0-0 EspanyolThu 21 Sep 2017 · home win said63 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 1-1 EspanyolSun 6 Nov 2022 · home win said62 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Sevilla | 15 | 32 | 24.3 | +7.7 |
  Real Betis | 14 | 28 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
  Real Sociedad | 15 | 30 | 25.2 | +4.8 |
  Leganes | 8 | 16 | 11.2 | +4.8 |
  Real Valladolid | 8 | 13 | 9.7 | +3.3 |
  Girona | 10 | 18 | 15.1 | +2.9 |
  Eibar | 6 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 |
  Villarreal | 14 | 28 | 25.2 | +2.8 |
  Real Madrid | 15 | 36 | 34.3 | +1.7 |
  Almeria | 2 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 |
  Granada | 4 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
  Alaves | 12 | 17 | 15.5 | +1.5 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Celta Vigo | 14 | 13 | 21.5 | −8.5 |
  Atletico Madrid | 14 | 20 | 28.3 | −8.3 |
  Athletic Club | 14 | 17 | 24.2 | −7.2 |
  Espanyol | 274 | 302 | 307.8 | −5.8 |
  Levante | 11 | 9 | 13.8 | −4.8 |
  Getafe | 14 | 18 | 20.9 | −2.9 |
  Malaga | 3 | 1 | 3.9 | −2.9 |
  Cadiz | 4 | 3 | 4.8 | −1.8 |
  Deportivo La Coruna | 2 | 1 | 2.6 | −1.6 |
  SD Huesca | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | −1.5 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 1 | 2.2 | −1.2 |
  Osasuna | 11 | 16 | 16.7 | −0.7 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 44 | 50 | 29 | 25 | 2.60 | 2.75 | 0.225 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 50 | 28 | 26 | 2.56 | 2.58 | 0.212 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 52 | 53 | 26 | 24 | 2.63 | 2.39 | 0.202 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 45 | 26 | 34 | 2.64 | 3.18 | 0.195 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 53 | 28 | 32 | 2.42 | 2.45 | 0.188 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 47 | 26 | 26 | 2.60 | 2.24 | 0.207 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 53 | 26 | 29 | 2.62 | 2.58 | 0.190 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 37 | 26 | 34 | 2.54 | 2.05 | 0.231 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.