All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 152 league matches of Leganes since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 29 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches152each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.24Vesta expected 2.46
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 46 | 16.0 | 13.0 | −3.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 168 | 26.6 | 26.8 | +0.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 116 | 33.7 | 32.8 | −1.0 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 54 | 44.7 | 44.4 | −0.3 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 35 | 54.3 | 57.1 | +2.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Barcelona 0-1 Leganes
Sun 15 Dec 2024 · La Liga2 in 100- Leganes 2-1 BarcelonaWed 26 Sep 2018 · La Liga13 in 100
- Leganes 1-0 Atletico Madrid
Sat 18 Jan 2025 · La Liga14 in 100 
Athletic Club 0-0 LeganesSun 26 Jan 2025 · La Liga17 in 100
Sevilla 0-3 LeganesFri 3 May 2019 · La Liga18 in 100
Villarreal 1-2 LeganesSun 8 Mar 2020 · La Liga18 in 100
Getafe 0-2 LeganesSat 30 Mar 2019 · La Liga18 in 100- Leganes 0-3 Levante
Mon 7 May 2018 · La Liga20 in 100 - Leganes 1-2 Real Valladolid
Sat 13 Jun 2020 · La Liga22 in 100 - Leganes 0-2 Espanyol
Sun 12 May 2019 · La Liga22 in 100 - Leganes 1-2 LevanteSat 5 Oct 2019 · La Liga24 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-0 LeganesSun 26 Jan 2020 · La Liga24 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Barcelona 0-1 LeganesSun 15 Dec 2024 · home win said91 in 100
- Athletic Club 0-0 LeganesSun 26 Jan 2025 · home win said76 in 100
- Leganes 2-1 BarcelonaWed 26 Sep 2018 · away win said68 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-0 LeganesSun 26 Jan 2020 · home win said64 in 100
- Leganes 1-0 Atletico MadridSat 18 Jan 2025 · away win said62 in 100
Real Sociedad 1-1 LeganesFri 8 Nov 2019 · home win said59 in 100- Leganes 0-0 Las Palmas
Sat 24 Feb 2018 · home win said58 in 100 - Sevilla 0-3 LeganesFri 3 May 2019 · home win said58 in 100
- Leganes 2-2 Real Madrid
Sun 19 Jul 2020 · away win said58 in 100 
Valencia 1-1 LeganesSun 22 Sep 2019 · home win said57 in 100- Villarreal 1-2 LeganesSun 8 Mar 2020 · home win said57 in 100
- Valencia 1-1 LeganesSat 20 Oct 2018 · home win said56 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Levante | 6 | 13 | 7.0 | +6.0 |
  Eibar | 6 | 14 | 8.8 | +5.2 |
  Villarreal | 8 | 18 | 13.5 | +4.5 |
  Real Betis | 8 | 16 | 12.3 | +3.7 |
  Girona | 6 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 |
  Osasuna | 4 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
  Real Madrid | 8 | 20 | 18.3 | +1.7 |
  Deportivo La Coruna | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
  Granada | 2 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
  Athletic Club | 8 | 14 | 13.3 | +0.7 |
  Real Sociedad | 8 | 14 | 13.5 | +0.5 |
  SD Huesca | 2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Leganes | 152 | 164 | 170.9 | −6.9 |
  Alaves | 8 | 6 | 11.1 | −5.1 |
  Las Palmas | 4 | 1 | 4.7 | −3.7 |
  Espanyol | 8 | 7 | 10.4 | −3.4 |
  Malaga | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | −2.5 |
  Sevilla | 8 | 11 | 13.4 | −2.4 |
  Real Valladolid | 6 | 5 | 7.2 | −2.2 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 4 | 6.1 | −2.1 |
  Barcelona | 8 | 18 | 19.4 | −1.4 |
  Celta Vigo | 8 | 11 | 12.3 | −1.3 |
  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 15 | 15.5 | −0.5 |
  Getafe | 8 | 12 | 12.4 | −0.4 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 54 | 47 | 26 | 34 | 2.59 | 2.50 | 0.189 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 45 | 29 | 32 | 2.32 | 2.13 | 0.208 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 45 | 27 | 32 | 2.46 | 2.11 | 0.207 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 66 | 27 | 18 | 2.47 | 2.24 | 0.187 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.