All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Athletic Club since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 28, happened 30 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened49 in 100Vesta said 48
Draws30 in 100Vesta said 28
Goals a match2.32Vesta expected 2.47
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 113 | 16.3 | 17.7 | +1.4 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 407 | 26.3 | 25.3 | −1.0 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 249 | 33.6 | 33.7 | +0.1 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 132 | 44.8 | 50.8 | +5.9 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 89 | 54.7 | 51.7 | −3.0 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 37 | 63.7 | 64.9 | +1.1 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Athletic Club 0-1 Elche
Sun 28 May 2023 · La Liga12 in 100
Real Madrid 1-1 Athletic ClubWed 18 Apr 2018 · La Liga13 in 100- Athletic Club 1-3 Levante
Mon 23 Apr 2018 · La Liga14 in 100 - Athletic Club 0-1 Cadiz
Fri 5 Nov 2021 · La Liga14 in 100 
Barcelona 1-1 Athletic ClubSat 29 Sep 2018 · La Liga15 in 100- Athletic Club 0-1 Getafe
Sat 25 Oct 2025 · La Liga15 in 100 - Athletic Club 0-1 Espanyol
Sun 4 Sep 2022 · La Liga16 in 100 - Athletic Club 0-1 Alaves
Sat 13 Sep 2025 · La Liga16 in 100 - Athletic Club 2-3 Deportivo La Coruna
Sat 14 Apr 2018 · La Liga17 in 100 - Athletic Club 0-0 Leganes
Sun 26 Jan 2025 · La Liga17 in 100 - Athletic Club 0-0 Las Palmas
Fri 9 Feb 2018 · La Liga18 in 100 
Sevilla 0-1 Athletic ClubMon 3 May 2021 · La Liga19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Real Madrid 1-1 Athletic ClubWed 18 Apr 2018 · home win said80 in 100
- Barcelona 1-1 Athletic ClubSat 29 Sep 2018 · home win said77 in 100
- Athletic Club 0-0 LeganesSun 26 Jan 2025 · home win said76 in 100
- Athletic Club 1-1 Granada
Fri 19 Apr 2024 · home win said71 in 100 - Athletic Club 0-0 Las PalmasFri 9 Feb 2018 · home win said71 in 100
- Athletic Club 1-1 Girona
Tue 23 Sep 2025 · home win said69 in 100 - Athletic Club 0-1 ElcheSun 28 May 2023 · home win said66 in 100
- Athletic Club 0-0 GetafeSun 20 Aug 2017 · home win said66 in 100
- Athletic Club 2-2 Osasuna
Sat 11 May 2024 · home win said65 in 100 - Athletic Club 1-1 Mallorca
Sun 9 Mar 2025 · home win said64 in 100 - Athletic Club 1-3 LevanteMon 23 Apr 2018 · home win said64 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-1 Athletic ClubSun 4 Jun 2023 · home win said63 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Barcelona | 19 | 46 | 38.2 | +7.8 |
  Real Madrid | 18 | 41 | 34.4 | +6.6 |
  Espanyol | 14 | 20 | 13.9 | +6.1 |
  Atletico Madrid | 19 | 35 | 29.8 | +5.2 |
  Real Sociedad | 18 | 29 | 24.0 | +5.0 |
  Valencia | 18 | 25 | 20.9 | +4.1 |
  Granada | 8 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 |
  Getafe | 18 | 23 | 19.4 | +3.6 |
  Sevilla | 19 | 27 | 23.8 | +3.2 |
  Girona | 12 | 17 | 14.1 | +2.9 |
  Celta Vigo | 19 | 25 | 22.1 | +2.9 |
  Deportivo La Coruna | 2 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Athletic Club | 348 | 490 | 523.9 | −33.9 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 6 | 12.8 | −6.8 |
  Villarreal | 18 | 20 | 25.5 | −5.5 |
  Eibar | 8 | 5 | 10.1 | −5.1 |
  Real Betis | 18 | 17 | 21.7 | −4.7 |
  Levante | 12 | 8 | 12.3 | −4.3 |
  Almeria | 4 | 1 | 2.8 | −1.8 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | −1.5 |
  Osasuna | 14 | 14 | 15.0 | −1.0 |
  Malaga | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | −1.0 |
  Las Palmas | 6 | 4 | 4.7 | −0.7 |
  SD Huesca | 4 | 4 | 4.6 | −0.6 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Athletic Club's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 6 | 52 | 33 | 27 | 33 | 2.64 | 2.17 | 0.231 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 47 | 28 | 16 | 2.44 | 2.66 | 0.234 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 58 | 27 | 34 | 2.53 | 2.18 | 0.164 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 52 | 61 | 26 | 29 | 2.65 | 2.58 | 0.172 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 53 | 28 | 24 | 2.42 | 2.37 | 0.213 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 47 | 29 | 34 | 2.33 | 2.08 | 0.211 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 39 | 29 | 34 | 2.33 | 2.32 | 0.206 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 42 | 29 | 32 | 2.31 | 2.08 | 0.207 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 39 | 27 | 37 | 2.52 | 2.26 | 0.198 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 53 | 26 | 34 | 2.69 | 2.37 | 0.214 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.