All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 114 league matches of Las Palmas since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 56 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 25, happened 22 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches114each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened56 in 100Vesta said 54
Draws22 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.45Vesta expected 2.70
Likeliest score happened17 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 53 | 15.5 | 13.2 | −2.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 116 | 25.6 | 20.7 | −4.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 63 | 33.6 | 36.5 | +2.9 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 30 | 44.3 | 46.7 | +2.4 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 29 | 54.3 | 62.1 | +7.8 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 21 | 65.1 | 71.4 | +6.4 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Barcelona 1-2 Las Palmas
Sat 30 Nov 2024 · La Liga4 in 100- Las Palmas 1-1 BarcelonaThu 1 Mar 2018 · La Liga9 in 100
- Las Palmas 1-0 Atletico Madrid
Sat 19 Apr 2025 · La Liga14 in 100 
Getafe 1-3 Las PalmasSat 12 Apr 2025 · La Liga15 in 100
Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Las PalmasFri 8 Nov 2024 · La Liga16 in 100
Villarreal 1-2 Las PalmasSun 8 Oct 2023 · La Liga18 in 100
Athletic Club 0-0 Las PalmasFri 9 Feb 2018 · La Liga18 in 100
Real Sociedad 2-2 Las PalmasSun 26 Nov 2017 · La Liga19 in 100
Malaga 1-3 Las PalmasMon 11 Sep 2017 · La Liga20 in 100
Valencia 2-3 Las PalmasMon 21 Oct 2024 · La Liga20 in 100- Rayo Vallecano 0-2 Las PalmasSat 20 Jan 2024 · La Liga20 in 100
Celta Vigo 1-1 Las PalmasMon 31 Mar 2025 · La Liga21 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Las Palmas 1-1 BarcelonaThu 1 Mar 2018 · away win said87 in 100
- Barcelona 1-2 Las PalmasSat 30 Nov 2024 · home win said87 in 100
- Athletic Club 0-0 Las PalmasFri 9 Feb 2018 · home win said71 in 100
- Real Sociedad 2-2 Las PalmasSun 26 Nov 2017 · home win said69 in 100
- Celta Vigo 1-1 Las PalmasMon 31 Mar 2025 · home win said68 in 100
- Real Sociedad 0-0 Las PalmasSun 15 Dec 2024 · home win said68 in 100
- Las Palmas 1-1 Real Madrid
Thu 29 Aug 2024 · away win said63 in 100 - Las Palmas 1-0 Atletico MadridSat 19 Apr 2025 · away win said63 in 100
Espanyol 1-1 Las PalmasSat 28 Apr 2018 · home win said60 in 100- Getafe 1-3 Las PalmasSat 12 Apr 2025 · home win said59 in 100
Leganes 0-0 Las PalmasSat 24 Feb 2018 · home win said58 in 100- Villarreal 1-2 Las PalmasSun 8 Oct 2023 · home win said57 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Sevilla | 6 | 16 | 10.2 | +5.8 |
  Leganes | 4 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 |
  Mallorca | 4 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 |
  Girona | 6 | 15 | 11.4 | +3.6 |
  Celta Vigo | 6 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 |
  Levante | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
  Eibar | 2 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
  Alaves | 6 | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 |
  Real Madrid | 6 | 16 | 14.6 | +1.4 |
  Athletic Club | 6 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 |
  Deportivo La Coruna | 2 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
  Villarreal | 6 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Las Palmas | 114 | 94 | 109.8 | −15.8 |
  Malaga | 2 | 0 | 3.2 | −3.2 |
  Barcelona | 6 | 13 | 15.2 | −2.2 |
  Granada | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | −1.4 |
  Valencia | 6 | 9 | 10.3 | −1.3 |
  Espanyol | 4 | 5 | 6.2 | −1.2 |
  Real Valladolid | 2 | 1 | 2.1 | −1.1 |
  Atletico Madrid | 6 | 12 | 13.0 | −1.0 |
  Cadiz | 2 | 2 | 2.6 | −0.6 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 6 | 6.4 | −0.4 |
  Getafe | 6 | 10 | 10.2 | −0.2 |
  Real Betis | 6 | 11 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Las Palmas's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 55 | 58 | 25 | 21 | 2.68 | 2.66 | 0.211 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 53 | 28 | 26 | 2.47 | 2.11 | 0.184 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 57 | 58 | 23 | 18 | 2.96 | 2.58 | 0.186 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.