All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 350 league matches of Sevilla since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 26 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened53 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws26 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.58Vesta expected 2.60
Likeliest score happened17 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 123 | 16.1 | 10.6 | −5.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 414 | 26.1 | 24.6 | −1.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 221 | 33.8 | 35.7 | +2.0 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 133 | 44.5 | 42.1 | −2.4 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 84 | 54.4 | 63.1 | +8.7 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 48 | 64.4 | 66.7 | +2.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Elche 2-1 Sevilla
Sat 6 Mar 2021 · La Liga10 in 100
Granada 1-0 SevillaSun 3 Oct 2021 · La Liga14 in 100
Girona 1-2 SevillaSat 18 Jan 2025 · La Liga14 in 100- Sevilla 4-1 Barcelona
Sun 5 Oct 2025 · La Liga14 in 100 
Villarreal 2-3 SevillaWed 13 May 2026 · La Liga15 in 100- Sevilla 0-1 Eibar
Sat 24 Oct 2020 · La Liga17 in 100 - Sevilla 0-3 Leganes
Fri 3 May 2019 · La Liga18 in 100 - Sevilla 3-5 Real Betis
Sat 6 Jan 2018 · La Liga18 in 100 - Sevilla 3-2 Real Madrid
Wed 9 May 2018 · La Liga19 in 100 - Sevilla 2-2 BarcelonaSat 31 Mar 2018 · La Liga19 in 100
- Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz
Wed 15 May 2024 · La Liga19 in 100 - Sevilla 0-1 Athletic Club
Mon 3 May 2021 · La Liga19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Elche 2-1 SevillaSat 6 Mar 2021 · away win said69 in 100
- Sevilla 1-1 Alaves
Sun 2 Feb 2020 · home win said68 in 100 - Sevilla 2-2 BarcelonaSat 31 Mar 2018 · away win said68 in 100
- Sevilla 0-0 Levante
Fri 15 Dec 2017 · home win said66 in 100 - Sevilla 1-1 Celta Vigo
Fri 30 Aug 2019 · home win said65 in 100 - Sevilla 2-2 AlavesSat 20 Nov 2021 · home win said64 in 100
- Sevilla 4-1 BarcelonaSun 5 Oct 2025 · away win said64 in 100
- Girona 1-2 SevillaSat 18 Jan 2025 · home win said63 in 100
- Sevilla 1-1 Real Valladolid
Fri 26 Jun 2020 · home win said63 in 100 - Elche 1-1 SevillaSat 28 Aug 2021 · away win said62 in 100
- Granada 1-0 SevillaSun 3 Oct 2021 · away win said62 in 100
- Sevilla 3-2 Real MadridWed 9 May 2018 · away win said62 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Sevilla | 350 | 522 | 508.0 | +14.0 |
  Real Madrid | 18 | 44 | 34.5 | +9.5 |
  Barcelona | 19 | 46 | 39.2 | +6.8 |
  Celta Vigo | 18 | 26 | 21.0 | +5.0 |
  Girona | 12 | 19 | 15.9 | +3.1 |
  Atletico Madrid | 19 | 35 | 32.1 | +2.9 |
  Leganes | 8 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 |
  Valencia | 19 | 25 | 23.0 | +2.0 |
  Alaves | 16 | 18 | 16.5 | +1.5 |
  Eibar | 8 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
  Villarreal | 18 | 27 | 25.5 | +1.5 |
  Osasuna | 14 | 17 | 16.1 | +0.9 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Rayo Vallecano | 13 | 8 | 16.8 | −8.8 |
  Espanyol | 15 | 8 | 16.5 | −8.5 |
  Las Palmas | 6 | 1 | 6.1 | −5.1 |
  Getafe | 18 | 17 | 21.8 | −4.8 |
  Real Valladolid | 10 | 4 | 8.7 | −4.7 |
  Real Betis | 18 | 19 | 23.1 | −4.1 |
  Real Sociedad | 18 | 22 | 25.2 | −3.2 |
  Cadiz | 8 | 5 | 8.0 | −3.0 |
  Deportivo La Coruna | 3 | 1 | 3.7 | −2.7 |
  Malaga | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | −2.0 |
  Granada | 8 | 6 | 7.1 | −1.1 |
  Athletic Club | 19 | 27 | 27.7 | −0.7 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 46 | 50 | 29 | 25 | 2.52 | 3.12 | 0.233 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 45 | 28 | 18 | 2.52 | 2.79 | 0.237 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 53 | 28 | 29 | 2.50 | 2.55 | 0.179 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 39 | 27 | 29 | 2.61 | 2.68 | 0.210 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 55 | 28 | 26 | 2.52 | 2.66 | 0.194 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 53 | 28 | 42 | 2.35 | 2.18 | 0.164 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 68 | 27 | 13 | 2.38 | 2.26 | 0.196 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 50 | 26 | 34 | 2.69 | 2.32 | 0.177 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 53 | 24 | 21 | 2.99 | 2.87 | 0.198 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 63 | 25 | 18 | 2.87 | 2.82 | 0.206 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.