All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 350 league matches of Real Madrid since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 66 times in 100; it said 62. Draws: said 21, happened 19 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened66 in 100Vesta said 62
Draws19 in 100Vesta said 21
Goals a match2.93Vesta expected 3.08
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 105 | 7.2 | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 274 | 15.6 | 13.9 | −1.7 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 290 | 24.5 | 20.3 | −4.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 43 | 34.1 | 37.2 | +3.1 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 54 | 44.8 | 55.6 | +10.8 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 92 | 55.9 | 62.0 | +6.1 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 81 | 64.6 | 65.4 | +0.9 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 75 | 74.4 | 78.7 | +4.3 |
| 80–90 in 100 | 35 | 83.9 | 82.9 | −1.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Real Madrid 1-2 Girona
Sun 17 Feb 2019 · La Liga6 in 100- Real Madrid 0-1 Real Betis
Wed 20 Sep 2017 · La Liga6 in 100 - Real Madrid 1-2 Levante
Sat 20 Oct 2018 · La Liga6 in 100 - Real Madrid 0-1 Villarreal
Sat 13 Jan 2018 · La Liga8 in 100 
Espanyol 1-0 Real MadridSat 1 Feb 2025 · La Liga8 in 100- Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia
Sat 5 Apr 2025 · La Liga9 in 100 - Real Madrid 0-1 Getafe
Mon 2 Mar 2026 · La Liga9 in 100 - Real Madrid 1-1 LevanteSat 9 Sep 2017 · La Liga9 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-1 Cadiz
Sat 17 Oct 2020 · La Liga10 in 100 - Real Madrid 1-2 Alaves
Sat 28 Nov 2020 · La Liga10 in 100 - Real Madrid 2-2 ValenciaSun 27 Aug 2017 · La Liga10 in 100
- Espanyol 1-0 Real MadridTue 27 Feb 2018 · La Liga11 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Real Madrid 1-1 LevanteSat 9 Sep 2017 · home win said86 in 100
- Real Madrid 2-2 ValenciaSun 27 Aug 2017 · home win said85 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-2 LevanteSat 20 Oct 2018 · home win said83 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-1 Real BetisWed 20 Sep 2017 · home win said83 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-2 GironaSun 17 Feb 2019 · home win said83 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-1 Athletic Club
Wed 18 Apr 2018 · home win said80 in 100 - Real Madrid 2-2 Elche
Sun 23 Jan 2022 · home win said79 in 100 - Real Madrid 0-0 CadizSun 19 Dec 2021 · home win said79 in 100
- Real Madrid 2-2 Celta Vigo
Sun 16 Feb 2020 · home win said79 in 100 - Real Madrid 0-1 VillarrealSat 13 Jan 2018 · home win said78 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-0 Rayo Vallecano
Sun 5 Nov 2023 · home win said77 in 100 - Real Madrid 1-1 GironaSun 30 Oct 2022 · home win said76 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Madrid | 350 | 762 | 720.8 | +41.2 |
  Real Betis | 19 | 22 | 14.9 | +7.1 |
  Levante | 12 | 12 | 6.7 | +5.3 |
  Girona | 12 | 12 | 7.8 | +4.2 |
  Mallorca | 12 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 |
  Valencia | 18 | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 13 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
  Espanyol | 15 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
  Cadiz | 8 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 |
  Atletico Madrid | 19 | 21 | 21.1 | −0.1 |
  Villarreal | 19 | 16 | 16.7 | −0.7 |
  Elche | 9 | 3 | 3.7 | −0.7 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Sevilla | 18 | 8 | 15.4 | −7.4 |
  Celta Vigo | 18 | 5 | 12.3 | −7.3 |
  Athletic Club | 18 | 8 | 15.2 | −7.2 |
  Granada | 8 | 0 | 4.7 | −4.7 |
  Getafe | 18 | 8 | 12.3 | −4.3 |
  Real Sociedad | 19 | 12 | 16.2 | −4.2 |
  Real Valladolid | 10 | 1 | 4.6 | −3.6 |
  Alaves | 16 | 6 | 8.8 | −2.8 |
  Eibar | 8 | 3 | 5.6 | −2.6 |
  Osasuna | 14 | 7 | 9.2 | −2.2 |
  Leganes | 8 | 2 | 4.2 | −2.2 |
  SD Huesca | 4 | 0 | 2.2 | −2.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Real Madrid's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 61 | 75 | 22 | 0 | 3.18 | 3.38 | 0.153 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 61 | 76 | 22 | 13 | 3.16 | 2.95 | 0.169 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 64 | 71 | 21 | 16 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 0.147 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 62 | 76 | 21 | 21 | 3.02 | 2.97 | 0.118 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 64 | 66 | 21 | 16 | 3.10 | 2.92 | 0.173 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 59 | 66 | 23 | 21 | 2.79 | 2.92 | 0.162 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 58 | 58 | 24 | 24 | 2.65 | 2.50 | 0.182 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 60 | 66 | 22 | 24 | 2.95 | 2.50 | 0.162 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 62 | 58 | 20 | 13 | 3.30 | 2.87 | 0.224 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 72 | 58 | 16 | 26 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 0.184 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.