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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 228 league matches of Girona since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 48 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 25 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	71	16.0	22.5	+6.5
20–30 in 100	291	26.1	26.1	0.0
30–40 in 100	126	34.7	33.3	−1.3
40–50 in 100	88	44.4	42.0	−2.4
50–60 in 100	50	54.7	58.0	+3.3
60–70 in 100	24	64.7	66.7	+1.9

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Real Betis	12	25	17.3	+7.7
Eibar	4	12	5.6	+6.4
Atletico Madrid	12	27	22.6	+4.4
Villarreal	12	22	18.7	+3.3
Levante	6	9	7.0	+2.0
Valencia	12	19	17.0	+2.0
Getafe	12	18	16.1	+1.9
Real Valladolid	6	7	5.3	+1.7
Real Oviedo	2	4	2.3	+1.7
SD Huesca	2	4	2.6	+1.4
Real Sociedad	12	19	18.2	+0.8
Mallorca	8	10	9.3	+0.7

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Real Madrid	12	21	25.9	−4.9
Girona	228	300	303.8	−3.8
Leganes	6	3	6.8	−3.8
Barcelona	12	23	26.7	−3.7
Espanyol	10	9	12.2	−3.2
Rayo Vallecano	10	10	12.9	−2.9
Las Palmas	6	3	5.2	−2.2
Deportivo La Coruna	2	0	2.0	−2.0
Celta Vigo	12	14	15.8	−1.8
Athletic Club	12	17	18.7	−1.7
Granada	2	0	1.6	−1.6
Malaga	2	1	2.2	−1.2

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Girona's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2025-26	La Liga	38	50	32	26	37	2.79	2.47	0.235
2024-25	La Liga	38	50	58	26	21	2.85	2.74	0.199
2023-24	La Liga	38	51	63	24	16	3.04	3.45	0.196
2022-23	La Liga	38	49	47	26	26	2.73	2.97	0.218
2018-19	La Liga	38	49	39	26	26	2.73	2.37	0.246
2017-18	La Liga	38	51	50	25	24	2.72	2.87	0.217

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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