All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 350 league matches of Real Betis since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 52 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 27, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened52 in 100Vesta said 48
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.70Vesta expected 2.65
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 93 | 16.6 | 19.4 | +2.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 458 | 26.2 | 22.5 | −3.7 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 220 | 34.2 | 31.8 | −2.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 133 | 44.7 | 54.1 | +9.5 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 98 | 54.2 | 58.2 | +3.9 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 24 | 64.5 | 79.2 | +14.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Real Madrid 0-1 Real Betis
Wed 20 Sep 2017 · La Liga6 in 100
Barcelona 3-4 Real BetisSun 11 Nov 2018 · La Liga8 in 100- Real Madrid 0-2 Real BetisSun 19 May 2019 · La Liga12 in 100
- Real Betis 0-1 Elche
Tue 19 Apr 2022 · La Liga12 in 100 - Real Betis 0-2 Cadiz
Sun 9 Apr 2023 · La Liga15 in 100 - Barcelona 1-1 Real BetisSat 5 Apr 2025 · La Liga17 in 100
- Barcelona 0-1 Real BetisSat 4 Dec 2021 · La Liga18 in 100
- Real Betis 1-2 Real Valladolid
Sun 18 Aug 2019 · La Liga18 in 100 - Real Madrid 0-0 Real BetisSat 25 May 2024 · La Liga18 in 100
- Real Betis 1-2 Mallorca
Mon 23 Sep 2024 · La Liga18 in 100 
Sevilla 3-5 Real BetisSat 6 Jan 2018 · La Liga18 in 100- Real Madrid 0-0 Real BetisSat 2 Nov 2019 · La Liga18 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Real Madrid 0-1 Real BetisWed 20 Sep 2017 · home win said83 in 100
- Barcelona 3-4 Real BetisSun 11 Nov 2018 · home win said77 in 100
- Barcelona 1-1 Real BetisSat 5 Apr 2025 · home win said74 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-0 Real BetisSat 25 May 2024 · home win said71 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-0 Real BetisSat 2 Nov 2019 · home win said70 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-2 Real BetisSun 19 May 2019 · home win said70 in 100
- Real Betis 0-1 ElcheTue 19 Apr 2022 · home win said66 in 100
Atletico Madrid 0-0 Real BetisSun 22 Apr 2018 · home win said65 in 100- Real Betis 1-1 Girona
Sun 23 Nov 2025 · home win said65 in 100 - Real Betis 0-2 CadizSun 9 Apr 2023 · home win said60 in 100
- Real Betis 1-1 Osasuna
Sun 11 May 2025 · home win said60 in 100 - Barcelona 0-1 Real BetisSat 4 Dec 2021 · home win said60 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Betis | 350 | 533 | 482.3 | +50.7 |
  Atletico Madrid | 18 | 39 | 32.1 | +6.9 |
  Barcelona | 18 | 44 | 38.8 | +5.2 |
  Athletic Club | 18 | 32 | 27.1 | +4.9 |
  Real Valladolid | 10 | 14 | 9.5 | +4.5 |
  Sevilla | 18 | 28 | 26.1 | +1.9 |
  Eibar | 8 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 |
  Celta Vigo | 18 | 24 | 22.5 | +1.5 |
  Levante | 13 | 16 | 14.8 | +1.2 |
  Las Palmas | 6 | 5 | 5.4 | −0.4 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | −0.7 |
  Getafe | 19 | 23 | 23.8 | −0.8 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Osasuna | 15 | 6 | 17.4 | −11.4 |
  Real Madrid | 19 | 28 | 37.9 | −9.9 |
  Girona | 12 | 7 | 15.5 | −8.5 |
  Mallorca | 12 | 5 | 12.4 | −7.4 |
  Real Sociedad | 19 | 22 | 28.1 | −6.1 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 9 | 14.2 | −5.2 |
  Espanyol | 14 | 10 | 15.2 | −5.2 |
  Villarreal | 19 | 27 | 30.2 | −3.2 |
  Deportivo La Coruna | 3 | 1 | 4.1 | −3.1 |
  Alaves | 16 | 15 | 17.8 | −2.8 |
  Leganes | 8 | 7 | 9.4 | −2.4 |
  Malaga | 2 | 0 | 2.4 | −2.4 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Real Betis's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 48 | 38 | 28 | 12 | 2.65 | 2.88 | 0.258 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 50 | 27 | 39 | 2.67 | 2.82 | 0.173 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 37 | 27 | 32 | 2.64 | 2.82 | 0.213 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 42 | 27 | 39 | 2.59 | 2.45 | 0.182 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 47 | 27 | 24 | 2.57 | 2.29 | 0.206 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 71 | 28 | 21 | 2.58 | 2.68 | 0.200 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 61 | 27 | 26 | 2.58 | 2.63 | 0.182 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 53 | 26 | 29 | 2.74 | 2.84 | 0.194 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 53 | 26 | 21 | 2.70 | 2.53 | 0.231 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 61 | 25 | 16 | 2.80 | 3.18 | 0.218 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.