All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 350 league matches of Atletico Madrid since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 62 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 26, happened 23 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened62 in 100Vesta said 54
Draws23 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.54Vesta expected 2.60
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 34 | 8.3 | 5.9 | −2.4 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 172 | 15.4 | 9.3 | −6.1 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 395 | 25.6 | 21.5 | −4.0 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 145 | 33.6 | 33.1 | −0.5 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 107 | 45.2 | 57.9 | +12.7 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 90 | 55.5 | 62.2 | +6.7 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 74 | 64.9 | 70.3 | +5.4 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 30 | 73.3 | 86.7 | +13.4 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Atletico Madrid 0-2 Espanyol
Sun 6 May 2018 · La Liga9 in 100- Atletico Madrid 1-2 Mallorca
Sat 4 Dec 2021 · La Liga10 in 100 - Atletico Madrid 0-1 Levante
Wed 16 Feb 2022 · La Liga10 in 100 
Elche 1-0 Atletico MadridSun 14 May 2023 · La Liga11 in 100- Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna
Sun 19 May 2024 · La Liga11 in 100 
Leganes 1-0 Atletico MadridSat 18 Jan 2025 · La Liga14 in 100
Alaves 1-0 Atletico MadridSat 25 Sep 2021 · La Liga14 in 100
Las Palmas 1-0 Atletico MadridSat 19 Apr 2025 · La Liga14 in 100- Atletico Madrid 0-2 LevanteSat 20 Feb 2021 · La Liga15 in 100
Cadiz 3-2 Atletico MadridSat 29 Oct 2022 · La Liga15 in 100
Granada 2-1 Atletico MadridWed 22 Dec 2021 · La Liga15 in 100- Atletico Madrid 0-0 GranadaWed 20 Apr 2022 · La Liga16 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Atletico Madrid 0-0 GranadaWed 20 Apr 2022 · home win said76 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-1 LevanteWed 16 Feb 2022 · home win said72 in 100
Girona 2-2 Atletico MadridSat 19 Aug 2017 · away win said71 in 100- Elche 1-0 Atletico MadridSun 14 May 2023 · away win said71 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-2 EspanyolSun 6 May 2018 · home win said70 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 1-2 MallorcaSat 4 Dec 2021 · home win said70 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 1-4 OsasunaSun 19 May 2024 · home win said69 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 1-1 ElcheSat 23 Aug 2025 · home win said68 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-0 EspanyolWed 28 Aug 2024 · home win said66 in 100
Real Madrid 0-0 Atletico MadridSat 29 Sep 2018 · home win said65 in 100- Atletico Madrid 0-0 Real Betis
Sun 22 Apr 2018 · home win said65 in 100 - Atletico Madrid 1-1 Celta Vigo
Sat 15 Feb 2025 · home win said65 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Atletico Madrid | 350 | 699 | 628.7 | +70.3 |
  Barcelona | 18 | 37 | 29.7 | +7.3 |
  Espanyol | 14 | 17 | 10.3 | +6.7 |
  Elche | 8 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 |
  Las Palmas | 6 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 |
  Levante | 12 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
  Mallorca | 12 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
  Cadiz | 8 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
  Almeria | 4 | 2 | 2.2 | −0.2 |
  Leganes | 8 | 6 | 6.4 | −0.4 |
  Granada | 8 | 5 | 6.0 | −1.0 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | −1.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Sociedad | 19 | 11 | 20.9 | −9.9 |
  Getafe | 18 | 6 | 15.9 | −9.9 |
  Valencia | 18 | 8 | 16.1 | −8.1 |
  Osasuna | 15 | 6 | 12.5 | −6.5 |
  Real Valladolid | 10 | 1 | 6.6 | −5.6 |
  Real Betis | 18 | 12 | 17.1 | −5.1 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 5 | 10.1 | −5.1 |
  Girona | 12 | 6 | 10.5 | −4.5 |
  Celta Vigo | 18 | 11 | 15.4 | −4.4 |
  Real Madrid | 19 | 27 | 30.9 | −3.9 |
  Alaves | 17 | 9 | 12.5 | −3.5 |
  Sevilla | 19 | 17 | 19.7 | −2.7 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Atletico Madrid's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 47 | 75 | 27 | 12 | 2.82 | 3.25 | 0.190 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 55 | 66 | 25 | 16 | 2.72 | 2.79 | 0.184 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 56 | 55 | 25 | 26 | 2.68 | 2.58 | 0.182 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 56 | 68 | 24 | 11 | 2.92 | 2.97 | 0.193 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 55 | 66 | 25 | 21 | 2.65 | 2.71 | 0.181 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 54 | 55 | 26 | 21 | 2.53 | 2.84 | 0.212 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 54 | 74 | 27 | 21 | 2.40 | 2.42 | 0.154 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 53 | 28 | 42 | 2.40 | 2.05 | 0.153 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 53 | 27 | 26 | 2.49 | 2.21 | 0.165 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 56 | 63 | 25 | 26 | 2.54 | 2.11 | 0.169 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.