All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 46 league matches of Deportivo La Coruna since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 52 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 33 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches46each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened52 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws33 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.98Vesta expected 2.76
Likeliest score happened20 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 55 | 25.9 | 25.5 | −0.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 29 | 34.2 | 34.5 | +0.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Athletic Club 2-3 Deportivo La Coruna
Sat 14 Apr 2018 · La Liga17 in 100
Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CorunaSat 5 Sep 2026 · La Liga17 in 100- Villarreal 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaSun 7 Jan 2018 · La Liga22 in 100
- Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Sevilla
Wed 16 Sep 2026 · La Liga24 in 100 
Celta Vigo 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaSat 5 May 2018 · La Liga24 in 100- Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Las Palmas
Sat 17 Mar 2018 · La Liga25 in 100 - Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 SevillaTue 17 Apr 2018 · La Liga26 in 100
Eibar 0-0 Deportivo La CorunaSun 15 Oct 2017 · La Liga26 in 100- Deportivo La Coruna 2-2 Levante
Sat 27 Jan 2018 · La Liga26 in 100 - Levante 2-2 Deportivo La CorunaSat 26 Aug 2017 · La Liga27 in 100
- Deportivo La Coruna 2-2 Athletic ClubSun 26 Nov 2017 · La Liga27 in 100
Leganes 0-0 Deportivo La CorunaFri 20 Apr 2018 · La Liga28 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Villarreal 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaSun 7 Jan 2018 · home win said62 in 100
- Athletic Club 2-3 Deportivo La CorunaSat 14 Apr 2018 · home win said58 in 100
- Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CorunaSat 5 Sep 2026 · home win said58 in 100
- Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Las PalmasSat 17 Mar 2018 · home win said56 in 100
- Celta Vigo 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaSat 5 May 2018 · home win said52 in 100
- Deportivo La Coruna 2-2 LevanteSat 27 Jan 2018 · home win said49 in 100
- Leganes 0-0 Deportivo La CorunaFri 20 Apr 2018 · home win said48 in 100
- Eibar 0-0 Deportivo La CorunaSun 15 Oct 2017 · home win said48 in 100
- Levante 2-2 Deportivo La CorunaSat 26 Aug 2017 · home win said47 in 100
- Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 SevillaWed 16 Sep 2026 · home win said46 in 100
Malaga 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaMon 24 Aug 2026 · home win said45 in 100- Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Real Betis
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · home win said44 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Sociedad | 3 | 9 | 5.0 | +4.0 |
  Real Betis | 3 | 7 | 4.1 | +2.9 |
  Sevilla | 3 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
  Girona | 2 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
  Atletico Madrid | 2 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
  Barcelona | 2 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 |
  Espanyol | 2 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
  Valencia | 3 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
  Real Madrid | 2 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
  Celta Vigo | 2 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
  Alaves | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
  Malaga | 3 | 4 | 4.3 | −0.3 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Deportivo La Coruna | 46 | 39 | 51.0 | −12.0 |
  Athletic Club | 2 | 1 | 3.4 | −2.4 |
  Leganes | 2 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  Villarreal | 3 | 4 | 5.4 | −1.4 |
  Las Palmas | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | −1.4 |
  Eibar | 2 | 2 | 3.1 | −1.1 |
  Getafe | 3 | 4 | 4.8 | −0.8 |
  Levante | 2 | 2 | 2.7 | −0.7 |
  Elche | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | −0.5 |
| Malaga | 3 | 4 | 4.3 | −0.3 |
| Alaves | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| Celta Vigo | 2 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Deportivo La Coruna's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 43 | 25 | 30 | 50 | 2.45 | 2.88 | 0.235 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 52 | 58 | 25 | 29 | 2.82 | 3.00 | 0.168 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.