All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 235 league matches of Levante since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 29 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches235each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened49 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.94Vesta expected 2.85
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 90 | 15.6 | 18.9 | +3.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 276 | 26.1 | 27.9 | +1.8 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 141 | 34.6 | 29.1 | −5.6 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 87 | 44.7 | 48.3 | +3.6 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 41 | 54.7 | 53.7 | −1.1 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 29 | 64.1 | 51.7 | −12.3 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Real Madrid 1-2 Levante
Sat 20 Oct 2018 · La Liga6 in 100- Real Madrid 1-1 LevanteSat 9 Sep 2017 · La Liga9 in 100
Atletico Madrid 0-1 LevanteWed 16 Feb 2022 · La Liga10 in 100
Getafe 0-1 LevanteSat 10 Mar 2018 · La Liga10 in 100- Real Madrid 1-2 LevanteSat 30 Jan 2021 · La Liga12 in 100
- Levante 5-4 Barcelona
Sun 13 May 2018 · La Liga12 in 100 
Real Sociedad 1-2 LevanteWed 30 Oct 2019 · La Liga13 in 100
Athletic Club 1-3 LevanteMon 23 Apr 2018 · La Liga14 in 100- Levante 3-1 BarcelonaSat 2 Nov 2019 · La Liga15 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-2 LevanteSat 20 Feb 2021 · La Liga15 in 100
- Getafe 0-1 LevanteSat 6 Oct 2018 · La Liga15 in 100
- Levante 1-0 Real MadridSat 22 Feb 2020 · La Liga15 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Real Madrid 1-1 LevanteSat 9 Sep 2017 · home win said86 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-2 LevanteSat 20 Oct 2018 · home win said83 in 100
- Levante 3-3 BarcelonaTue 11 May 2021 · away win said76 in 100
- Levante 2-2 Real MadridSat 3 Feb 2018 · away win said73 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-1 LevanteWed 16 Feb 2022 · home win said72 in 100
- Levante 5-4 BarcelonaSun 13 May 2018 · away win said70 in 100
Girona 1-1 LevanteSat 31 Mar 2018 · home win said69 in 100- Getafe 0-1 LevanteSat 10 Mar 2018 · home win said69 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-2 LevanteSat 30 Jan 2021 · home win said69 in 100
- Real Sociedad 1-2 LevanteWed 30 Oct 2019 · home win said67 in 100
- Levante 3-1 BarcelonaSat 2 Nov 2019 · away win said67 in 100
Sevilla 0-0 LevanteFri 15 Dec 2017 · home win said66 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Levante | 235 | 263 | 254.5 | +8.5 |
  Alaves | 12 | 23 | 15.9 | +7.1 |
  Valencia | 12 | 25 | 19.1 | +5.9 |
  Athletic Club | 12 | 26 | 20.5 | +5.5 |
  Villarreal | 13 | 28 | 24.4 | +3.6 |
  Espanyol | 11 | 18 | 16.1 | +1.9 |
  Celta Vigo | 12 | 20 | 18.2 | +1.8 |
  Real Betis | 13 | 22 | 20.8 | +1.2 |
  Cadiz | 4 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
  Elche | 6 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
  Osasuna | 9 | 15 | 14.3 | +0.7 |
  SD Huesca | 4 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Getafe | 12 | 13 | 19.4 | −6.4 |
  Real Madrid | 12 | 21 | 27.1 | −6.1 |
  Eibar | 8 | 7 | 12.9 | −5.9 |
  Leganes | 6 | 4 | 9.4 | −5.4 |
  Girona | 6 | 6 | 9.5 | −3.5 |
  Real Sociedad | 12 | 18 | 21.3 | −3.3 |
  Atletico Madrid | 12 | 22 | 24.9 | −2.9 |
  Granada | 6 | 6 | 8.5 | −2.5 |
  Real Valladolid | 6 | 6 | 8.4 | −2.4 |
  Las Palmas | 2 | 0 | 2.4 | −2.4 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 0 | 2.4 | −2.4 |
  Malaga | 3 | 2 | 4.3 | −2.3 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 7 | 47 | 43 | 27 | 43 | 2.83 | 3.71 | 0.151 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 61 | 26 | 24 | 2.78 | 2.84 | 0.188 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 53 | 26 | 29 | 2.70 | 3.34 | 0.195 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 37 | 26 | 37 | 2.69 | 2.71 | 0.212 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 52 | 53 | 24 | 18 | 3.01 | 2.63 | 0.228 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 54 | 53 | 23 | 29 | 3.14 | 3.29 | 0.206 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 53 | 39 | 24 | 34 | 2.78 | 2.68 | 0.236 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.