All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 38 league matches of Cardiff since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 66 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 23, happened 11 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches38each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened66 in 100Vesta said 54
Draws11 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match2.71Vesta expected 2.94
Likeliest score happened5 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 45 | 25.8 | 17.8 | −8.1 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Manchester United 0-2 Cardiff
Sun 12 May 2019 · Premier League8 in 100
Leicester 0-1 CardiffSat 29 Dec 2018 · Premier League21 in 100
Crystal Palace 0-0 CardiffWed 26 Dec 2018 · Premier League24 in 100
Southampton 1-2 CardiffSat 9 Feb 2019 · Premier League24 in 100- Cardiff 0-0 Newcastle United
Sat 18 Aug 2018 · Premier League27 in 100 - Cardiff 0-0 Huddersfield
Sat 12 Jan 2019 · Premier League27 in 100 - Cardiff 2-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Fri 30 Nov 2018 · Premier League28 in 100 - Huddersfield 0-0 CardiffSat 25 Aug 2018 · Premier League29 in 100
- Cardiff 1-2 Burnley
Sun 30 Sep 2018 · Premier League29 in 100 
Brighton 0-2 CardiffTue 16 Apr 2019 · Premier League30 in 100- Cardiff 2-0 West Ham
Sat 9 Mar 2019 · Premier League34 in 100 - Cardiff 2-0 Bournemouth
Sat 2 Feb 2019 · Premier League35 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Manchester United 0-2 CardiffSun 12 May 2019 · home win said77 in 100
- Crystal Palace 0-0 CardiffWed 26 Dec 2018 · home win said57 in 100
- Leicester 0-1 CardiffSat 29 Dec 2018 · home win said54 in 100
- Cardiff 0-0 HuddersfieldSat 12 Jan 2019 · home win said50 in 100
- Southampton 1-2 CardiffSat 9 Feb 2019 · home win said50 in 100
- Cardiff 0-0 Newcastle UnitedSat 18 Aug 2018 · home win said45 in 100
- Cardiff 1-2 BurnleySun 30 Sep 2018 · home win said44 in 100
- Cardiff 2-1 Wolverhampton WanderersFri 30 Nov 2018 · away win said43 in 100
- Brighton 0-2 CardiffTue 16 Apr 2019 · home win said42 in 100
- Cardiff 2-0 West HamSat 9 Mar 2019 · away win said40 in 100
- Cardiff 2-0 BournemouthSat 2 Feb 2019 · away win said39 in 100
- Huddersfield 0-0 CardiffSat 25 Aug 2018 · away win said38 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Burnley | 2 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
  Watford | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
  Everton | 2 | 6 | 3.3 | +2.7 |
  Arsenal | 2 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
  Chelsea | 2 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
  Tottenham | 2 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
  Newcastle United | 2 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
  Liverpool | 2 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
  Manchester City | 2 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
  Crystal Palace | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
  Fulham | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
  West Ham | 2 | 3 | 3.1 | −0.1 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Cardiff | 38 | 34 | 37.9 | −3.9 |
  Southampton | 2 | 0 | 3.0 | −3.0 |
  Brighton | 2 | 0 | 2.6 | −2.6 |
  Manchester United | 2 | 3 | 4.1 | −1.1 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 3 | 3.8 | −0.8 |
  Bournemouth | 2 | 3 | 3.5 | −0.5 |
  Huddersfield | 2 | 2 | 2.2 | −0.2 |
  Leicester | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | −0.2 |
| West Ham | 2 | 3 | 3.1 | −0.1 |
| Fulham | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| Crystal Palace | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| Manchester City | 2 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 66 | 23 | 11 | 2.94 | 2.71 | 0.191 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.