All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 342 league matches of West Ham since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 55 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 24, happened 23 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches342each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened55 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws23 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.94Vesta expected 3.03
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 34 | 6.3 | 11.8 | +5.4 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 122 | 16.0 | 13.9 | −2.1 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 435 | 25.4 | 24.4 | −1.0 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 142 | 34.9 | 34.5 | −0.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 127 | 44.9 | 49.6 | +4.7 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 90 | 54.5 | 55.6 | +1.0 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 40 | 64.5 | 65.0 | +0.5 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 22 | 75.3 | 68.2 | −7.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Arsenal 0-1 West Ham
Sat 22 Feb 2025 · Premier League6 in 100- Arsenal 0-2 West HamThu 28 Dec 2023 · Premier League8 in 100
Chelsea 0-1 West HamSat 30 Nov 2019 · Premier League9 in 100
Tottenham 0-1 West HamSat 27 Apr 2019 · Premier League10 in 100- Tottenham 1-1 West HamThu 4 Jan 2018 · Premier League12 in 100
Newcastle United 0-2 West HamMon 25 Nov 2024 · Premier League13 in 100- Chelsea 1-1 West HamSun 8 Apr 2018 · Premier League14 in 100
- West Ham 3-2 ChelseaWed 1 Jul 2020 · Premier League14 in 100
- West Ham 1-1 Liverpool
Mon 4 Feb 2019 · Premier League15 in 100 - West Ham 2-2 Manchester City
Sun 15 May 2022 · Premier League15 in 100 - West Ham 1-0 ChelseaSat 9 Dec 2017 · Premier League15 in 100
Brighton 1-3 West HamSat 26 Aug 2023 · Premier League16 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Tottenham 1-1 West HamThu 4 Jan 2018 · home win said82 in 100
- Arsenal 0-1 West HamSat 22 Feb 2025 · home win said80 in 100
- Chelsea 1-1 West HamSun 8 Apr 2018 · home win said79 in 100
- Arsenal 0-2 West HamThu 28 Dec 2023 · home win said77 in 100
- West Ham 1-1 LiverpoolMon 4 Feb 2019 · away win said77 in 100
- Chelsea 0-1 West HamSat 30 Nov 2019 · home win said77 in 100
- West Ham 2-2 Manchester CitySun 15 May 2022 · away win said77 in 100
- Tottenham 0-1 West HamSat 27 Apr 2019 · home win said74 in 100
Manchester United 1-1 West HamWed 22 Jul 2020 · home win said70 in 100- West Ham 2-2 LiverpoolSat 27 Apr 2024 · away win said69 in 100
- Newcastle United 0-2 West HamMon 25 Nov 2024 · home win said68 in 100
- West Ham 1-1 Southampton
Sat 19 Apr 2025 · home win said67 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  West Ham | 342 | 428 | 409.9 | +18.1 |
  Brentford | 10 | 25 | 15.5 | +9.5 |
  Liverpool | 18 | 47 | 41.1 | +5.9 |
  Newcastle United | 18 | 31 | 26.2 | +4.8 |
  Brighton | 18 | 31 | 26.5 | +4.5 |
  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 15 | 11.0 | +4.0 |
  Manchester City | 18 | 48 | 44.6 | +3.4 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16 | 24 | 20.8 | +3.2 |
  Crystal Palace | 18 | 28 | 25.2 | +2.8 |
  Arsenal | 18 | 39 | 36.8 | +2.2 |
  Burnley | 14 | 16 | 14.7 | +1.3 |
  Swansea | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Southampton | 14 | 10 | 17.8 | −7.8 |
  Bournemouth | 14 | 15 | 19.3 | −4.3 |
  Watford | 8 | 6 | 10.1 | −4.1 |
  Fulham | 12 | 11 | 15.0 | −4.0 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 1 | 4.7 | −3.7 |
  Norwich | 4 | 0 | 3.7 | −3.7 |
  Chelsea | 18 | 33 | 36.4 | −3.4 |
  Everton | 18 | 22 | 25.3 | −3.3 |
  Aston Villa | 14 | 17 | 20.3 | −3.3 |
  Manchester United | 18 | 28 | 31.3 | −3.3 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 1 | 4.1 | −3.1 |
  Tottenham | 18 | 29 | 32.0 | −3.0 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 61 | 25 | 24 | 2.93 | 2.92 | 0.194 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 58 | 23 | 26 | 3.22 | 2.84 | 0.201 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 55 | 23 | 26 | 3.18 | 3.53 | 0.203 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 50 | 55 | 26 | 18 | 2.81 | 2.55 | 0.188 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 61 | 25 | 21 | 3.00 | 2.92 | 0.206 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 50 | 55 | 25 | 21 | 2.91 | 2.87 | 0.198 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 53 | 23 | 24 | 3.13 | 2.92 | 0.207 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 55 | 53 | 23 | 18 | 3.07 | 2.82 | 0.218 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 45 | 23 | 32 | 3.02 | 3.05 | 0.212 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.