All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 272 league matches of Bournemouth since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 50 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 24, happened 26 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches272each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened50 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws26 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.95Vesta expected 3.06
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 35 | 6.4 | 8.6 | +2.2 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 109 | 16.3 | 16.5 | +0.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 320 | 25.5 | 28.4 | +3.0 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 120 | 34.8 | 33.3 | −1.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 101 | 44.7 | 40.6 | −4.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 67 | 55.4 | 50.7 | −4.6 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 30 | 65.0 | 56.7 | −8.4 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 21 | 75.2 | 76.2 | +1.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Chelsea 0-3 Bournemouth
Wed 31 Jan 2018 · Premier League6 in 100- Bournemouth 1-2 Ipswich
Wed 2 Apr 2025 · Premier League10 in 100 - Chelsea 0-1 BournemouthSat 14 Dec 2019 · Premier League10 in 100
- Bournemouth 2-0 Newcastle United
Sat 11 Nov 2023 · Premier League10 in 100 
Arsenal 1-2 BournemouthSat 11 Apr 2026 · Premier League11 in 100- Bournemouth 1-0 Liverpool
Sat 11 Mar 2023 · Premier League11 in 100 
Tottenham 2-3 BournemouthSat 15 Apr 2023 · Premier League12 in 100- Bournemouth 0-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sat 22 Feb 2025 · Premier League14 in 100 - Arsenal 1-2 BournemouthSat 3 May 2025 · Premier League15 in 100
- Bournemouth 0-1 Fulham
Sat 20 Apr 2019 · Premier League15 in 100 
Manchester United 0-3 BournemouthSat 9 Dec 2023 · Premier League17 in 100- Bournemouth 2-2 Sheffield United
Sat 9 Mar 2024 · Premier League18 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Chelsea 0-3 BournemouthWed 31 Jan 2018 · home win said81 in 100
- Chelsea 0-1 BournemouthSat 14 Dec 2019 · home win said74 in 100
- Bournemouth 1-2 IpswichWed 2 Apr 2025 · home win said74 in 100
- Bournemouth 2-0 Newcastle UnitedSat 11 Nov 2023 · away win said73 in 100
- Bournemouth 1-0 LiverpoolSat 11 Mar 2023 · away win said72 in 100
- Bournemouth 2-2 Sheffield UnitedSat 9 Mar 2024 · home win said71 in 100
- Arsenal 1-2 BournemouthSat 11 Apr 2026 · home win said70 in 100
Brentford 2-2 BournemouthSat 2 Sep 2023 · home win said69 in 100- Tottenham 2-3 BournemouthSat 15 Apr 2023 · home win said68 in 100
- Bournemouth 1-1 Burnley
Sat 20 Dec 2025 · home win said68 in 100 - Bournemouth 2-2 ChelseaSat 29 Feb 2020 · away win said66 in 100
- Newcastle United 2-2 BournemouthSat 17 Feb 2024 · home win said66 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Bournemouth | 272 | 326 | 312.9 | +13.1 |
  Liverpool | 15 | 39 | 33.2 | +5.8 |
  Burnley | 10 | 17 | 11.3 | +5.7 |
  Brentford | 9 | 19 | 14.3 | +4.7 |
  Manchester City | 15 | 40 | 35.6 | +4.4 |
  Sunderland | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
  Norwich | 2 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 |
  Ipswich | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
  Cardiff | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
  Luton | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
  Sheffield United | 4 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12 | 17 | 16.8 | +0.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Newcastle United | 15 | 17 | 24.5 | −7.5 |
  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 4 | 10.2 | −6.2 |
  Leicester | 10 | 11 | 15.8 | −4.8 |
  Fulham | 10 | 8 | 12.6 | −4.6 |
  Everton | 15 | 17 | 21.4 | −4.4 |
  Chelsea | 15 | 26 | 29.7 | −3.7 |
  Tottenham | 14 | 23 | 26.2 | −3.2 |
  Stoke | 2 | 0 | 2.7 | −2.7 |
  Brighton | 14 | 20 | 21.9 | −1.9 |
  Southampton | 10 | 12 | 13.7 | −1.7 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 3 | 4.4 | −1.4 |
  Arsenal | 14 | 28 | 29.3 | −1.3 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Bournemouth's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 44 | 50 | 27 | 50 | 3.02 | 3.33 | 0.167 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 37 | 26 | 47 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 0.200 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 39 | 24 | 29 | 3.17 | 2.74 | 0.240 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 56 | 58 | 22 | 24 | 3.24 | 3.18 | 0.194 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 55 | 58 | 24 | 16 | 2.91 | 2.84 | 0.193 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 50 | 23 | 18 | 3.02 | 2.76 | 0.218 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 61 | 23 | 16 | 3.05 | 3.32 | 0.196 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 56 | 47 | 23 | 29 | 3.05 | 2.79 | 0.191 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.