All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Tottenham since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 59 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 24, happened 19 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened59 in 100Vesta said 54
Draws19 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match3.05Vesta expected 3.01
Likeliest score happened9 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 35 | 6.9 | 11.4 | +4.5 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 155 | 15.8 | 15.5 | −0.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 418 | 25.3 | 19.9 | −5.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 135 | 34.8 | 38.5 | +3.7 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 117 | 45.0 | 52.1 | +7.2 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 91 | 54.7 | 62.6 | +7.9 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 48 | 64.9 | 68.8 | +3.9 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 34 | 75.4 | 76.5 | +1.1 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Tottenham 1-2 Ipswich
Sun 10 Nov 2024 · Premier League7 in 100
Manchester City 2-3 TottenhamSat 19 Feb 2022 · Premier League7 in 100- Tottenham 0-1 West Ham
Sat 27 Apr 2019 · Premier League10 in 100 - Tottenham 0-0 Swansea
Sat 16 Sep 2017 · Premier League10 in 100 - Tottenham 1-2 Leicester
Sun 26 Jan 2025 · Premier League10 in 100 - Tottenham 1-1 Burnley
Sun 27 Aug 2017 · Premier League11 in 100 - Tottenham 2-3 Bournemouth
Sat 15 Apr 2023 · Premier League12 in 100 - Tottenham 1-1 West HamThu 4 Jan 2018 · Premier League12 in 100
- Tottenham 2-0 Manchester CitySun 2 Feb 2020 · Premier League12 in 100
- Tottenham 1-0 Manchester CitySun 15 Aug 2021 · Premier League13 in 100
- Manchester City 3-3 TottenhamSun 3 Dec 2023 · Premier League13 in 100
West Bromwich Albion 1-0 TottenhamSat 5 May 2018 · Premier League14 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Tottenham 0-0 SwanseaSat 16 Sep 2017 · home win said86 in 100
- Tottenham 1-1 BurnleySun 27 Aug 2017 · home win said84 in 100
- Tottenham 1-1 West HamThu 4 Jan 2018 · home win said82 in 100
- Manchester City 3-3 TottenhamSun 3 Dec 2023 · home win said79 in 100
- Tottenham 1-2 IpswichSun 10 Nov 2024 · home win said79 in 100
- Tottenham 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionSat 25 Nov 2017 · home win said78 in 100
- Manchester City 2-3 TottenhamSat 19 Feb 2022 · home win said78 in 100
- Manchester City 2-2 TottenhamSat 17 Aug 2019 · home win said77 in 100
- Tottenham 0-1 West HamSat 27 Apr 2019 · home win said74 in 100
- Tottenham 1-2 LeicesterSun 26 Jan 2025 · home win said73 in 100
Liverpool 1-1 TottenhamSun 15 Mar 2026 · home win said72 in 100- Tottenham 2-0 Manchester CitySun 2 Feb 2020 · away win said69 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Chelsea | 18 | 41 | 28.6 | +12.4 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16 | 24 | 16.2 | +7.8 |
  Arsenal | 18 | 36 | 28.7 | +7.3 |
  Liverpool | 18 | 40 | 34.7 | +5.3 |
  Newcastle United | 19 | 27 | 21.9 | +5.1 |
  Bournemouth | 14 | 17 | 12.8 | +4.2 |
  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 13 | 10.0 | +3.0 |
  West Ham | 18 | 20 | 17.7 | +2.3 |
  Aston Villa | 15 | 21 | 19.1 | +1.9 |
  Ipswich | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
  Fulham | 12 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 |
  Brighton | 18 | 21 | 19.3 | +1.7 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Manchester City | 18 | 27 | 38.3 | −11.3 |
  Everton | 19 | 13 | 20.5 | −7.5 |
  Leeds | 8 | 4 | 9.1 | −5.1 |
  Brentford | 11 | 10 | 14.9 | −4.9 |
  Crystal Palace | 18 | 14 | 18.7 | −4.7 |
  Burnley | 14 | 9 | 11.1 | −2.1 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 0 | 1.9 | −1.9 |
  Norwich | 4 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  Luton | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | −1.5 |
  Sheffield United | 6 | 4 | 5.1 | −1.1 |
  Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | −1.0 |
  Stoke | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | −0.7 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Tottenham's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 45 | 33 | 28 | 50 | 2.74 | 2.00 | 0.197 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 42 | 26 | 29 | 2.89 | 2.76 | 0.223 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 58 | 24 | 13 | 3.34 | 3.39 | 0.227 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 63 | 23 | 16 | 3.34 | 3.55 | 0.193 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 61 | 24 | 16 | 2.97 | 3.50 | 0.206 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 66 | 25 | 13 | 2.87 | 2.87 | 0.233 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 58 | 26 | 21 | 2.75 | 2.97 | 0.202 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 47 | 25 | 29 | 2.87 | 2.84 | 0.199 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 60 | 71 | 22 | 5 | 3.05 | 2.79 | 0.179 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 66 | 71 | 19 | 21 | 3.09 | 2.89 | 0.155 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.