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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 234 league matches of Fulham since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 58 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 22 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	24	6.6	0.0	−6.6
10–20 in 100	77	16.0	19.5	+3.5
20–30 in 100	294	26.0	21.8	−4.3
30–40 in 100	118	34.6	36.4	+1.8
40–50 in 100	93	44.9	49.5	+4.6
50–60 in 100	41	54.3	61.0	+6.7
60–70 in 100	33	64.4	69.7	+5.3

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Aston Villa	10	24	15.8	+8.2
Manchester City	12	36	28.7	+7.3
Manchester United	13	30	23.0	+7.0
Bournemouth	10	20	14.8	+5.2
West Ham	12	23	17.8	+5.2
Crystal Palace	13	23	18.9	+4.1
Newcastle United	12	23	19.3	+3.7
Chelsea	13	28	24.8	+3.2
Wolverhampton Wanderers	12	19	15.9	+3.1
Arsenal	12	27	24.5	+2.5
Burnley	8	11	8.9	+2.1
Ipswich	3	5	3.3	+1.7

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Brighton	12	8	18.9	−10.9
Liverpool	13	23	28.9	−5.9
Nottingham Forest	8	4	9.8	−5.8
Fulham	234	261	266.7	−5.7
Leicester	8	7	12.6	−5.6
Brentford	8	8	12.3	−4.3
Sheffield United	4	2	4.4	−2.4
Southampton	8	8	10.2	−2.2
Luton	2	0	2.2	−2.2
West Bromwich Albion	2	1	2.2	−1.2
Tottenham	12	20	20.8	−0.8
Sunderland	3	3	3.8	−0.8

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Fulham's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Premier League	6	41	0	28	33	2.76	2.67	0.252
2025-26	Premier League	38	46	68	27	18	2.68	2.58	0.189
2024-25	Premier League	38	50	42	26	24	2.89	2.84	0.255
2023-24	Premier League	38	52	61	24	21	3.06	3.05	0.203
2022-23	Premier League	38	50	58	25	18	2.89	2.84	0.199
2020-21	Premier League	38	50	47	26	34	2.68	2.11	0.197
2018-19	Premier League	38	60	79	21	13	3.12	3.03	0.138

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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