All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 266 league matches of Burnley since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 55. Draws: said 24, happened 26 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches266each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 55
Draws26 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.59Vesta expected 2.85
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 47 | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 113 | 15.4 | 16.8 | +1.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 312 | 25.8 | 28.2 | +2.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 94 | 34.3 | 34.0 | −0.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 91 | 45.2 | 38.5 | −6.7 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 57 | 54.2 | 49.1 | −5.1 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 37 | 64.0 | 78.4 | +14.4 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 28 | 75.3 | 64.3 | −11.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Chelsea 2-3 Burnley
Sat 12 Aug 2017 · Premier League5 in 100
Liverpool 0-1 BurnleyThu 21 Jan 2021 · Premier League7 in 100
Crystal Palace 2-3 BurnleyWed 11 Feb 2026 · Premier League10 in 100
Tottenham 1-1 BurnleySun 27 Aug 2017 · Premier League11 in 100
Manchester United 0-2 BurnleyWed 22 Jan 2020 · Premier League12 in 100- Chelsea 1-1 BurnleySat 21 Feb 2026 · Premier League13 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 BurnleySat 17 Jan 2026 · Premier League13 in 100
Southampton 0-1 BurnleySat 4 Nov 2017 · Premier League14 in 100- Liverpool 1-1 BurnleySat 16 Sep 2017 · Premier League14 in 100
- Burnley 1-1 Manchester City
Sat 3 Feb 2018 · Premier League14 in 100 - Liverpool 1-1 BurnleySat 11 Jul 2020 · Premier League15 in 100
- Manchester United 2-2 BurnleyTue 26 Dec 2017 · Premier League16 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Tottenham 1-1 BurnleySun 27 Aug 2017 · home win said84 in 100
- Chelsea 2-3 BurnleySat 12 Aug 2017 · home win said84 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 BurnleySat 17 Jan 2026 · home win said82 in 100
- Chelsea 1-1 BurnleySat 21 Feb 2026 · home win said81 in 100
- Burnley 1-1 Manchester CitySat 3 Feb 2018 · away win said80 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 BurnleySat 16 Sep 2017 · home win said79 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 BurnleySat 11 Jul 2020 · home win said77 in 100
- Manchester United 2-2 BurnleyTue 26 Dec 2017 · home win said77 in 100
- Liverpool 0-1 BurnleyThu 21 Jan 2021 · home win said76 in 100
- Manchester United 2-2 BurnleyTue 29 Jan 2019 · home win said75 in 100
- Chelsea 1-1 BurnleySat 6 Nov 2021 · home win said75 in 100
- Chelsea 2-2 BurnleyMon 22 Apr 2019 · home win said74 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Burnley | 266 | 268 | 250.3 | +17.7 |
  Newcastle United | 14 | 32 | 22.4 | +9.6 |
  Manchester City | 14 | 40 | 36.3 | +3.7 |
  Arsenal | 14 | 33 | 30.4 | +2.6 |
  Tottenham | 14 | 30 | 27.7 | +2.3 |
  Leeds | 6 | 13 | 10.9 | +2.1 |
  Aston Villa | 10 | 19 | 17.6 | +1.4 |
  Nottingham Forest | 4 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 |
  Swansea | 2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
  Manchester United | 14 | 29 | 28.6 | +0.4 |
  Brentford | 6 | 12 | 11.8 | +0.2 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 5 | 5.1 | −0.1 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12 | 11 | 19.7 | −8.7 |
  Southampton | 10 | 10 | 16.2 | −6.2 |
  Watford | 8 | 5 | 10.9 | −5.9 |
  Bournemouth | 10 | 11 | 16.2 | −5.2 |
  Brighton | 14 | 19 | 23.3 | −4.3 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 3 | 5.6 | −2.6 |
  Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2.6 | −2.6 |
  Fulham | 8 | 11 | 13.0 | −2.0 |
  Luton | 2 | 1 | 2.8 | −1.8 |
  West Ham | 14 | 22 | 23.8 | −1.8 |
  Stoke | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | −1.4 |
  Everton | 14 | 23 | 24.3 | −1.3 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 61 | 63 | 22 | 26 | 3.08 | 2.97 | 0.153 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 57 | 66 | 22 | 24 | 3.13 | 3.13 | 0.163 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 39 | 25 | 37 | 2.69 | 2.29 | 0.190 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 47 | 26 | 24 | 2.65 | 2.32 | 0.213 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 45 | 25 | 24 | 2.83 | 2.45 | 0.216 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 57 | 55 | 23 | 18 | 2.89 | 2.97 | 0.187 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 42 | 25 | 32 | 2.66 | 1.97 | 0.238 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.