All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 152 league matches of Watford since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 57 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 24, happened 20 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches152each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened57 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws20 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.83Vesta expected 2.89
Likeliest score happened8 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 25 | 6.2 | 4.0 | −2.2 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 57 | 16.2 | 21.1 | +4.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 185 | 25.9 | 23.2 | −2.6 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 60 | 35.1 | 30.0 | −5.1 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 55 | 45.1 | 52.7 | +7.6 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 38 | 54.7 | 47.4 | −7.3 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Watford 3-0 Liverpool
Sat 29 Feb 2020 · Premier League7 in 100- Watford 4-1 Manchester United
Sat 20 Nov 2021 · Premier League14 in 100 
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-2 WatfordSat 20 Oct 2018 · Premier League17 in 100
Southampton 0-2 WatfordSat 9 Sep 2017 · Premier League17 in 100
Everton 2-5 WatfordSat 23 Oct 2021 · Premier League17 in 100- Watford 4-1 Chelsea
Mon 5 Feb 2018 · Premier League17 in 100 - Watford 2-0 Manchester UnitedSun 22 Dec 2019 · Premier League18 in 100
- Watford 2-1 Arsenal
Sat 14 Oct 2017 · Premier League19 in 100 - Manchester United 0-0 WatfordSat 26 Feb 2022 · Premier League19 in 100
Aston Villa 0-1 WatfordSat 19 Feb 2022 · Premier League19 in 100- Southampton 1-2 WatfordSun 13 Mar 2022 · Premier League20 in 100
- Watford 2-1 Tottenham
Sun 2 Sep 2018 · Premier League20 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Watford 3-0 LiverpoolSat 29 Feb 2020 · away win said78 in 100
- Manchester United 0-0 WatfordSat 26 Feb 2022 · home win said69 in 100
- Watford 4-1 Manchester UnitedSat 20 Nov 2021 · away win said64 in 100
- Tottenham 1-1 WatfordSat 19 Oct 2019 · home win said63 in 100
- Watford 3-3 LiverpoolSat 12 Aug 2017 · away win said61 in 100
- Southampton 0-2 WatfordSat 9 Sep 2017 · home win said59 in 100
- Watford 2-1 ArsenalSat 14 Oct 2017 · away win said59 in 100
- Watford 4-1 ChelseaMon 5 Feb 2018 · away win said59 in 100
- Watford 2-0 Manchester UnitedSun 22 Dec 2019 · away win said59 in 100
- Everton 2-5 WatfordSat 23 Oct 2021 · home win said59 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-2 WatfordSat 20 Oct 2018 · home win said58 in 100
- Watford 0-0 Burnley
Sat 19 Jan 2019 · home win said56 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Burnley | 8 | 17 | 10.9 | +6.1 |
  West Ham | 8 | 18 | 11.9 | +6.1 |
  Brighton | 8 | 15 | 10.7 | +4.3 |
  Manchester City | 8 | 24 | 20.9 | +3.1 |
  Arsenal | 8 | 19 | 15.9 | +3.1 |
  Chelsea | 8 | 21 | 18.0 | +3.0 |
  Leeds | 2 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
  Brentford | 2 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
  Leicester | 8 | 16 | 13.9 | +2.1 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 6 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 |
  Stoke | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Watford | 152 | 148 | 162.8 | −14.8 |
  Newcastle United | 8 | 7 | 10.7 | −3.7 |
  Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 5.7 | −2.7 |
  Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2.4 | −2.4 |
  Everton | 8 | 11 | 13.0 | −2.0 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  Bournemouth | 6 | 6 | 7.5 | −1.5 |
  Norwich | 4 | 3 | 4.4 | −1.4 |
  Sheffield United | 2 | 2 | 3.4 | −1.4 |
  Fulham | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | −1.0 |
  Tottenham | 8 | 15 | 15.6 | −0.6 |
  Liverpool | 8 | 19 | 19.6 | −0.6 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 55 | 71 | 24 | 13 | 2.89 | 2.92 | 0.189 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 50 | 24 | 26 | 2.97 | 2.63 | 0.198 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 58 | 25 | 21 | 2.80 | 2.92 | 0.188 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 50 | 24 | 21 | 2.89 | 2.84 | 0.214 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.