All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 266 league matches of Southampton since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 24, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches266each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened53 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.86Vesta expected 2.90
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 34 | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 115 | 15.7 | 16.5 | +0.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 303 | 25.9 | 28.4 | +2.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 135 | 35.0 | 34.8 | −0.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 85 | 45.1 | 45.9 | +0.8 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 52 | 54.6 | 48.1 | −6.5 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 38 | 65.3 | 55.3 | −10.0 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 23 | 74.7 | 82.6 | +7.9 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Manchester City 0-0 Southampton
Sat 18 Sep 2021 · Premier League12 in 100- Southampton 0-0 Manchester CitySat 10 May 2025 · Premier League13 in 100
- Southampton 1-1 Manchester CitySat 22 Jan 2022 · Premier League13 in 100
- Southampton 1-0 Manchester CitySun 5 Jul 2020 · Premier League14 in 100
- Southampton 0-1 Burnley
Sat 4 Nov 2017 · Premier League14 in 100 
Chelsea 0-2 SouthamptonThu 26 Dec 2019 · Premier League14 in 100
Arsenal 3-3 SouthamptonFri 21 Apr 2023 · Premier League14 in 100- Chelsea 0-1 SouthamptonSat 18 Feb 2023 · Premier League14 in 100
- Chelsea 0-0 SouthamptonWed 2 Jan 2019 · Premier League16 in 100
- Southampton 0-2 Watford
Sat 9 Sep 2017 · Premier League17 in 100 - Southampton 0-1 Newcastle United
Sat 7 Mar 2020 · Premier League17 in 100 - Southampton 2-1 ChelseaTue 30 Aug 2022 · Premier League17 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Manchester City 0-0 SouthamptonSat 18 Sep 2021 · home win said83 in 100
- Southampton 0-0 Manchester CitySat 10 May 2025 · away win said82 in 100
- Southampton 1-1 Manchester CitySat 22 Jan 2022 · away win said81 in 100
- Arsenal 3-3 SouthamptonFri 21 Apr 2023 · home win said80 in 100
- Chelsea 0-0 SouthamptonWed 2 Jan 2019 · home win said76 in 100
- Southampton 4-4 Liverpool
Sun 28 May 2023 · away win said71 in 100 
Fulham 0-0 SouthamptonSun 22 Dec 2024 · home win said71 in 100
Brighton 1-1 SouthamptonFri 29 Nov 2024 · home win said68 in 100- Southampton 1-1 Crystal Palace
Wed 2 Apr 2025 · away win said68 in 100 - Southampton 1-0 Manchester CitySun 5 Jul 2020 · away win said68 in 100
West Ham 1-1 SouthamptonSat 19 Apr 2025 · home win said67 in 100- Chelsea 0-2 SouthamptonThu 26 Dec 2019 · home win said67 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Newcastle United | 14 | 33 | 20.2 | +12.8 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12 | 29 | 18.0 | +11.0 |
  West Ham | 14 | 28 | 20.7 | +7.3 |
  Nottingham Forest | 4 | 12 | 6.1 | +5.9 |
  Burnley | 10 | 16 | 11.1 | +4.9 |
  Brentford | 6 | 15 | 10.2 | +4.8 |
  Liverpool | 14 | 37 | 32.7 | +4.3 |
  Cardiff | 2 | 6 | 2.5 | +3.5 |
  Aston Villa | 10 | 18 | 14.9 | +3.1 |
  Leicester | 14 | 24 | 21.4 | +2.6 |
  Fulham | 8 | 14 | 11.7 | +2.3 |
  Leeds | 6 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Southampton | 266 | 247 | 301.8 | −54.8 |
  Sheffield United | 4 | 0 | 4.8 | −4.8 |
  Manchester City | 14 | 33 | 35.6 | −2.6 |
  Chelsea | 14 | 27 | 29.3 | −2.3 |
  Brighton | 14 | 19 | 21.0 | −2.0 |
  Ipswich | 2 | 1 | 3.0 | −2.0 |
  Arsenal | 14 | 26 | 27.4 | −1.4 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 3 | 4.1 | −1.1 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 3 | 4.0 | −1.0 |
  Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | −0.7 |
  Everton | 14 | 20 | 20.6 | −0.6 |
  Norwich | 4 | 3 | 3.5 | −0.5 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Southampton's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 64 | 76 | 20 | 16 | 3.35 | 2.95 | 0.136 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 61 | 25 | 18 | 2.82 | 2.87 | 0.214 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 39 | 26 | 34 | 2.80 | 2.89 | 0.223 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 66 | 26 | 18 | 2.75 | 3.03 | 0.205 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 3.00 | 2.92 | 0.255 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 42 | 24 | 32 | 2.79 | 2.89 | 0.201 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 45 | 25 | 39 | 2.77 | 2.45 | 0.185 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.