All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Liverpool since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 64 times in 100; it said 65. Draws: said 20, happened 23 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened64 in 100Vesta said 65
Draws23 in 100Vesta said 20
Goals a match3.12Vesta expected 3.25
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 141 | 6.6 | 7.1 | +0.4 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 269 | 15.4 | 13.8 | −1.7 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 252 | 24.1 | 27.4 | +3.3 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 50 | 34.9 | 26.0 | −8.9 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 50 | 45.4 | 40.0 | −5.4 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 69 | 55.6 | 55.1 | −0.5 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 74 | 65.1 | 68.9 | +3.8 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 89 | 74.9 | 73.0 | −1.8 |
| 80–90 in 100 | 42 | 84.7 | 88.1 | +3.4 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Liverpool 0-1 Crystal Palace
Sun 14 Apr 2024 · Premier League6 in 100- Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest
Sat 14 Sep 2024 · Premier League7 in 100 - Liverpool 1-2 Leeds
Sat 29 Oct 2022 · Premier League7 in 100 
Watford 3-0 LiverpoolSat 29 Feb 2020 · Premier League7 in 100- Liverpool 0-1 Burnley
Thu 21 Jan 2021 · Premier League7 in 100 
Swansea 1-0 LiverpoolMon 22 Jan 2018 · Premier League7 in 100- Liverpool 1-1 West Bromwich Albion
Sun 27 Dec 2020 · Premier League8 in 100 - Liverpool 0-0 Stoke
Sat 28 Apr 2018 · Premier League9 in 100 
Aston Villa 7-2 LiverpoolSun 4 Oct 2020 · Premier League9 in 100- Nottingham Forest 1-0 LiverpoolSat 22 Oct 2022 · Premier League9 in 100
- Liverpool 0-3 Nottingham ForestSat 22 Nov 2025 · Premier League10 in 100
Bournemouth 1-0 LiverpoolSat 11 Mar 2023 · Premier League11 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Liverpool 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionSun 27 Dec 2020 · home win said89 in 100
- Liverpool 0-0 StokeSat 28 Apr 2018 · home win said88 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 Leicester
Wed 30 Jan 2019 · home win said82 in 100 - Liverpool 1-1 BurnleySat 17 Jan 2026 · home win said82 in 100
- Liverpool 0-1 Crystal PalaceSun 14 Apr 2024 · home win said80 in 100
- Liverpool 1-2 LeedsSat 29 Oct 2022 · home win said80 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 BurnleySat 16 Sep 2017 · home win said79 in 100
- Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham ForestSat 14 Sep 2024 · home win said79 in 100
- Watford 3-0 LiverpoolSat 29 Feb 2020 · away win said78 in 100
Newcastle United 0-0 LiverpoolWed 30 Dec 2020 · away win said78 in 100- Liverpool 2-2 Manchester United
Sun 5 Jan 2025 · home win said78 in 100 - Liverpool 1-1 BurnleySat 11 Jul 2020 · home win said77 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 11 | 5.0 | +6.0 |
  Brighton | 18 | 16 | 12.0 | +4.0 |
  Liverpool | 348 | 734 | 730.1 | +3.9 |
  Manchester United | 18 | 19 | 15.5 | +3.5 |
  Fulham | 13 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 |
  Everton | 18 | 13 | 10.4 | +2.6 |
  Swansea | 2 | 3 | 0.6 | +2.4 |
  Leeds | 8 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
  Watford | 8 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
  Brentford | 10 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
  Chelsea | 18 | 20 | 19.6 | +0.4 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Newcastle United | 19 | 5 | 12.9 | −7.9 |
  Tottenham | 18 | 10 | 15.4 | −5.4 |
  West Ham | 18 | 5 | 9.8 | −4.8 |
  Arsenal | 18 | 16 | 20.6 | −4.6 |
  Bournemouth | 15 | 6 | 9.0 | −3.0 |
  Southampton | 14 | 4 | 6.9 | −2.9 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16 | 6 | 8.7 | −2.7 |
  Sheffield United | 6 | 0 | 2.6 | −2.6 |
  Crystal Palace | 18 | 9 | 11.0 | −2.0 |
  Leicester | 14 | 7 | 8.8 | −1.8 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
  Ipswich | 3 | 0 | 1.3 | −1.3 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Liverpool's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 47 | 50 | 26 | 50 | 2.99 | 2.33 | 0.184 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 57 | 47 | 23 | 24 | 3.06 | 3.05 | 0.232 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 66 | 66 | 19 | 24 | 3.46 | 3.34 | 0.147 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 63 | 63 | 20 | 26 | 3.42 | 3.34 | 0.142 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 63 | 50 | 21 | 26 | 3.21 | 3.21 | 0.219 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 69 | 74 | 18 | 21 | 3.28 | 3.16 | 0.098 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 62 | 55 | 21 | 24 | 3.05 | 2.89 | 0.222 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 70 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3.25 | 3.11 | 0.103 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 71 | 82 | 17 | 18 | 3.32 | 2.92 | 0.080 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 64 | 61 | 20 | 32 | 3.23 | 3.21 | 0.154 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.