All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 266 league matches of Leicester since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 57 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 24, happened 21 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches266each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened57 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws21 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.98Vesta expected 2.94
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 23 | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 117 | 15.6 | 17.9 | +2.4 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 321 | 25.3 | 23.7 | −1.6 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 125 | 35.6 | 36.8 | +1.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 68 | 44.8 | 44.1 | −0.7 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 69 | 54.6 | 59.4 | +4.8 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 44 | 64.0 | 65.9 | +1.9 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Leicester 2-1 Manchester City
Wed 26 Dec 2018 · Premier League10 in 100
Tottenham 1-2 LeicesterSun 26 Jan 2025 · Premier League10 in 100
Chelsea 0-1 LeicesterSat 22 Dec 2018 · Premier League11 in 100
Liverpool 1-1 LeicesterWed 30 Jan 2019 · Premier League12 in 100- Leicester 1-1 Norwich
Sat 14 Dec 2019 · Premier League13 in 100 - Leicester 2-4 Newcastle United
Fri 7 May 2021 · Premier League13 in 100 - Manchester City 2-5 LeicesterSun 27 Sep 2020 · Premier League13 in 100
- Leicester 1-0 LiverpoolTue 28 Dec 2021 · Premier League14 in 100
- Leicester 1-2 Fulham
Mon 30 Nov 2020 · Premier League16 in 100 - Norwich 1-0 LeicesterFri 28 Feb 2020 · Premier League17 in 100
- Leicester 0-3 West Ham
Sun 4 Oct 2020 · Premier League17 in 100 
Brighton 2-2 LeicesterSat 12 Apr 2025 · Premier League17 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Liverpool 1-1 LeicesterWed 30 Jan 2019 · home win said82 in 100
- Leicester 1-1 NorwichSat 14 Dec 2019 · home win said81 in 100
- Brighton 2-2 LeicesterSat 12 Apr 2025 · home win said74 in 100
- Chelsea 0-0 LeicesterSat 13 Jan 2018 · home win said74 in 100
- Tottenham 1-2 LeicesterSun 26 Jan 2025 · home win said73 in 100
- Leicester 2-1 Manchester CityWed 26 Dec 2018 · away win said73 in 100
- Newcastle United 0-0 LeicesterMon 22 May 2023 · home win said73 in 100
- Chelsea 0-1 LeicesterSat 22 Dec 2018 · home win said71 in 100
- Leicester 1-1 Swansea
Sat 3 Feb 2018 · home win said69 in 100 - Manchester City 2-5 LeicesterSun 27 Sep 2020 · home win said68 in 100
- Chelsea 1-1 LeicesterThu 19 May 2022 · home win said68 in 100
Nottingham Forest 2-2 LeicesterSun 11 May 2025 · home win said68 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Fulham | 8 | 16 | 9.4 | +6.6 |
  Manchester United | 14 | 30 | 24.7 | +5.3 |
  Bournemouth | 10 | 17 | 11.8 | +5.2 |
  Everton | 14 | 22 | 16.8 | +5.2 |
  Crystal Palace | 14 | 22 | 17.0 | +5.0 |
  Newcastle United | 14 | 22 | 17.9 | +4.1 |
  Arsenal | 14 | 28 | 24.5 | +3.5 |
  Liverpool | 14 | 34 | 30.6 | +3.4 |
  Aston Villa | 10 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 |
  Manchester City | 14 | 36 | 33.7 | +2.3 |
  West Ham | 14 | 19 | 16.8 | +2.2 |
  Norwich | 4 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Leicester | 266 | 338 | 353.0 | −15.0 |
  Brighton | 14 | 12 | 18.7 | −6.7 |
  Sheffield United | 4 | 0 | 4.0 | −4.0 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 1 | 4.1 | −3.1 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 1 | 4.1 | −3.1 |
  Ipswich | 2 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  Brentford | 6 | 8 | 9.9 | −1.9 |
  Southampton | 14 | 15 | 16.9 | −1.9 |
  Leeds | 6 | 5 | 6.8 | −1.8 |
  Watford | 8 | 7 | 8.2 | −1.2 |
  Chelsea | 14 | 26 | 26.9 | −0.9 |
  Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1.8 | −0.8 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Leicester's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 59 | 71 | 22 | 18 | 3.22 | 2.97 | 0.152 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 50 | 61 | 25 | 18 | 2.95 | 3.13 | 0.207 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 50 | 53 | 25 | 26 | 2.98 | 3.18 | 0.189 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 50 | 25 | 16 | 2.83 | 3.11 | 0.257 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 63 | 24 | 21 | 2.91 | 2.84 | 0.187 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 50 | 24 | 18 | 2.81 | 2.61 | 0.235 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 50 | 24 | 29 | 2.92 | 3.05 | 0.207 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.