All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Crystal Palace since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 29 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.61Vesta expected 2.76
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 31 | 7.4 | 12.9 | +5.5 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 111 | 16.3 | 13.5 | −2.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 450 | 26.3 | 28.2 | +1.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 171 | 34.6 | 33.9 | −0.7 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 138 | 44.7 | 40.6 | −4.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 80 | 54.7 | 52.5 | −2.2 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 30 | 64.2 | 76.7 | +12.5 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 22 | 73.0 | 77.3 | +4.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Manchester City 2-3 Crystal Palace
Sat 22 Dec 2018 · Premier League3 in 100- Manchester City 0-2 Crystal PalaceSat 30 Oct 2021 · Premier League5 in 100
Liverpool 0-1 Crystal PalaceSun 14 Apr 2024 · Premier League6 in 100- Manchester City 2-2 Crystal PalaceSat 18 Jan 2020 · Premier League9 in 100
- Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley
Wed 11 Feb 2026 · Premier League10 in 100 
Manchester United 1-3 Crystal PalaceSat 19 Sep 2020 · Premier League12 in 100- Crystal Palace 0-3 Huddersfield
Sat 12 Aug 2017 · Premier League14 in 100 - Manchester City 2-2 Crystal PalaceSat 16 Dec 2023 · Premier League14 in 100
- Crystal Palace 2-1 Chelsea
Sat 14 Oct 2017 · Premier League15 in 100 
Arsenal 2-3 Crystal PalaceSun 21 Apr 2019 · Premier League15 in 100- Crystal Palace 0-0 Manchester CitySun 31 Dec 2017 · Premier League17 in 100
- Crystal Palace 0-0 Manchester CityMon 14 Mar 2022 · Premier League17 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Manchester City 2-3 Crystal PalaceSat 22 Dec 2018 · home win said88 in 100
- Manchester City 2-2 Crystal PalaceSat 18 Jan 2020 · home win said87 in 100
- Manchester City 0-2 Crystal PalaceSat 30 Oct 2021 · home win said83 in 100
- Manchester City 2-2 Crystal PalaceSat 16 Dec 2023 · home win said81 in 100
- Liverpool 0-1 Crystal PalaceSun 14 Apr 2024 · home win said80 in 100
- Crystal Palace 0-0 Manchester CityMon 14 Mar 2022 · away win said74 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 Crystal PalaceMon 15 Aug 2022 · home win said74 in 100
- Crystal Palace 0-0 Manchester CitySun 31 Dec 2017 · away win said74 in 100
- Crystal Palace 0-0 Manchester UnitedWed 3 Mar 2021 · away win said71 in 100
- Crystal Palace 2-3 BurnleyWed 11 Feb 2026 · home win said70 in 100
Southampton 1-1 Crystal PalaceWed 2 Apr 2025 · away win said68 in 100- Manchester United 1-3 Crystal PalaceSat 19 Sep 2020 · home win said67 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Everton | 19 | 40 | 25.8 | +14.2 |
  Chelsea | 18 | 45 | 35.7 | +9.3 |
  Tottenham | 18 | 38 | 30.7 | +7.3 |
  Liverpool | 18 | 42 | 39.4 | +2.6 |
  Burnley | 14 | 17 | 15.0 | +2.0 |
  Swansea | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
  Sunderland | 2 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 |
  Newcastle United | 18 | 27 | 25.1 | +1.9 |
  Luton | 2 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 |
  Arsenal | 18 | 36 | 34.1 | +1.9 |
  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 12 | 10.8 | +1.2 |
  Ipswich | 3 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Brighton | 18 | 20 | 26.4 | −6.4 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16 | 14 | 19.8 | −5.8 |
  Fulham | 13 | 11 | 16.5 | −5.5 |
  Leicester | 14 | 16 | 21.4 | −5.4 |
  West Ham | 18 | 19 | 24.0 | −5.0 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 1 | 4.9 | −3.9 |
  Manchester United | 18 | 28 | 31.4 | −3.4 |
  Manchester City | 19 | 41 | 44.2 | −3.2 |
  Brentford | 10 | 12 | 14.7 | −2.7 |
  Aston Villa | 14 | 18 | 20.5 | −2.5 |
  Stoke | 2 | 0 | 2.2 | −2.2 |
  Norwich | 4 | 2 | 4.0 | −2.0 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Crystal Palace's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 45 | 33 | 27 | 17 | 2.84 | 3.50 | 0.270 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 45 | 26 | 32 | 2.83 | 2.42 | 0.207 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 42 | 26 | 37 | 2.85 | 2.68 | 0.212 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 55 | 26 | 26 | 2.77 | 3.03 | 0.203 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 50 | 27 | 32 | 2.61 | 2.34 | 0.187 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 39 | 26 | 39 | 2.66 | 2.53 | 0.205 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 55 | 25 | 21 | 2.66 | 2.82 | 0.207 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 50 | 55 | 25 | 26 | 2.78 | 2.13 | 0.187 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 61 | 25 | 18 | 2.78 | 2.74 | 0.225 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 55 | 24 | 29 | 2.87 | 2.63 | 0.186 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.