All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 304 league matches of Wolverhampton Wanderers since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 25, happened 23 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches304each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened49 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws23 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.55Vesta expected 2.73
Likeliest score happened16 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 31 | 7.1 | 6.5 | −0.6 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 120 | 15.7 | 15.8 | +0.1 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 357 | 26.0 | 27.2 | +1.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 165 | 34.5 | 35.8 | +1.3 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 94 | 45.0 | 38.3 | −6.7 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 68 | 54.6 | 57.4 | +2.8 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 43 | 64.7 | 53.5 | −11.2 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 25 | 74.2 | 84.0 | +9.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Manchester City 0-2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sun 6 Oct 2019 · Premier League4 in 100- Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 Manchester CitySat 30 Sep 2023 · Premier League7 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-2 Huddersfield
Sun 25 Nov 2018 · Premier League10 in 100 - Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-2 Manchester CityFri 27 Dec 2019 · Premier League11 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-3 West Bromwich Albion
Sat 16 Jan 2021 · Premier League12 in 100 - Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 Liverpool
Tue 3 Mar 2026 · Premier League12 in 100 
Fulham 1-4 Wolverhampton WanderersSat 23 Nov 2024 · Premier League12 in 100
Chelsea 2-4 Wolverhampton WanderersSun 4 Feb 2024 · Premier League14 in 100
Bournemouth 0-1 Wolverhampton WanderersSat 22 Feb 2025 · Premier League14 in 100
Brentford 1-4 Wolverhampton WanderersWed 27 Dec 2023 · Premier League16 in 100- Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-0 LiverpoolSat 4 Feb 2023 · Premier League16 in 100
Tottenham 1-2 Wolverhampton WanderersSat 17 Feb 2024 · Premier League17 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Manchester City 0-2 Wolverhampton WanderersSun 6 Oct 2019 · home win said86 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 Manchester CitySat 30 Sep 2023 · away win said78 in 100
- Chelsea 2-2 Wolverhampton WanderersSat 7 May 2022 · home win said76 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-2 Manchester CityFri 27 Dec 2019 · away win said71 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-2 Arsenal
Wed 18 Feb 2026 · away win said70 in 100 - Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-1 Manchester CitySat 25 Aug 2018 · away win said69 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-2 HuddersfieldSun 25 Nov 2018 · home win said68 in 100
- Fulham 1-4 Wolverhampton WanderersSat 23 Nov 2024 · home win said67 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-3 West Bromwich AlbionSat 16 Jan 2021 · home win said67 in 100
- Tottenham 2-2 Wolverhampton WanderersSun 29 Dec 2024 · home win said66 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 LiverpoolTue 3 Mar 2026 · away win said66 in 100
Brighton 0-0 Wolverhampton WanderersMon 22 Jan 2024 · home win said66 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 304 | 361 | 349.0 | +12.0 |
  Crystal Palace | 16 | 32 | 23.7 | +8.3 |
  Burnley | 12 | 20 | 12.9 | +7.1 |
  Liverpool | 16 | 42 | 36.2 | +5.8 |
  Huddersfield | 2 | 6 | 1.3 | +4.7 |
  Leeds | 8 | 16 | 11.4 | +4.6 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 4 | 1.7 | +2.3 |
  Brighton | 16 | 28 | 25.8 | +2.2 |
  Newcastle United | 16 | 26 | 23.9 | +2.1 |
  Cardiff | 2 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 |
  Arsenal | 16 | 33 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
  West Ham | 16 | 24 | 23.0 | +1.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Southampton | 12 | 5 | 14.6 | −9.6 |
  Aston Villa | 14 | 15 | 22.9 | −7.9 |
  Tottenham | 16 | 21 | 27.7 | −6.7 |
  Chelsea | 16 | 25 | 31.6 | −6.6 |
  Everton | 16 | 19 | 24.1 | −5.1 |
  Fulham | 12 | 13 | 16.9 | −3.9 |
  Manchester City | 16 | 37 | 39.1 | −2.1 |
  Brentford | 10 | 15 | 16.8 | −1.8 |
  Luton | 2 | 1 | 2.6 | −1.6 |
  Norwich | 4 | 2 | 3.5 | −1.5 |
  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 11 | 12.0 | −1.0 |
  Manchester United | 16 | 28 | 28.9 | −0.9 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Wolverhampton Wanderers's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 63 | 25 | 29 | 2.71 | 2.50 | 0.168 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 55 | 63 | 23 | 16 | 3.08 | 3.24 | 0.194 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 56 | 45 | 23 | 18 | 3.04 | 3.03 | 0.229 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 50 | 26 | 21 | 2.65 | 2.34 | 0.193 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 45 | 27 | 16 | 2.51 | 2.13 | 0.233 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 47 | 47 | 28 | 24 | 2.49 | 2.32 | 0.226 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 42 | 25 | 37 | 2.71 | 2.39 | 0.204 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 39 | 25 | 24 | 2.66 | 2.45 | 0.238 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.