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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 76 league matches of Huddersfield since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 62 times in 100; it said 57. Draws: said 24, happened 22 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches76each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened62 in 100Vesta said 57
Draws22 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.42Vesta expected 2.70
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
10–20 in 1003715.416.2+0.9
20–30 in 1007325.621.9−3.6
30–40 in 1004034.435.0+0.6
50–60 in 1002254.450.0−4.4

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Manchester City 0-0 HuddersfieldSun 6 May 2018 · Premier League4 in 100
  2. Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-2 HuddersfieldSun 25 Nov 2018 · Premier League10 in 100
  3. Crystal Palace 0-3 HuddersfieldSat 12 Aug 2017 · Premier League14 in 100
  4. Chelsea 1-1 HuddersfieldWed 9 May 2018 · Premier League15 in 100
  5. Huddersfield 2-1 Manchester UnitedSat 21 Oct 2017 · Premier League17 in 100
  6. Huddersfield 1-0 Wolverhampton WanderersTue 26 Feb 2019 · Premier League17 in 100
  7. Huddersfield 1-1 Manchester UnitedSun 5 May 2019 · Premier League19 in 100
  8. West Bromwich Albion 1-2 HuddersfieldSat 24 Feb 2018 · Premier League21 in 100
  9. Watford 1-4 HuddersfieldSat 16 Dec 2017 · Premier League21 in 100
  10. Southampton 1-1 HuddersfieldSun 12 May 2019 · Premier League22 in 100
  11. Everton 1-1 HuddersfieldSat 1 Sep 2018 · Premier League24 in 100
  12. Southampton 1-1 HuddersfieldSat 23 Dec 2017 · Premier League25 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Manchester City 0-0 HuddersfieldSun 6 May 2018 · home win said96 in 100
  2. Chelsea 1-1 HuddersfieldWed 9 May 2018 · home win said79 in 100
  3. Huddersfield 1-1 Manchester UnitedSun 5 May 2019 · away win said70 in 100
  4. Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-2 HuddersfieldSun 25 Nov 2018 · home win said68 in 100
  5. Southampton 1-1 HuddersfieldSun 12 May 2019 · home win said65 in 100
  6. Crystal Palace 0-3 HuddersfieldSat 12 Aug 2017 · home win said65 in 100
  7. Everton 1-1 HuddersfieldSat 1 Sep 2018 · home win said59 in 100
  8. Huddersfield 2-1 Manchester UnitedSat 21 Oct 2017 · away win said58 in 100
  9. Southampton 1-1 HuddersfieldSat 23 Dec 2017 · home win said58 in 100
  10. Huddersfield 1-0 Wolverhampton WanderersTue 26 Feb 2019 · away win said57 in 100
  11. Brighton 1-1 HuddersfieldSat 7 Apr 2018 · home win said54 in 100
  12. Watford 1-4 HuddersfieldSat 16 Dec 2017 · home win said53 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
West Ham4106.2+3.8
Newcastle United495.8+3.2
Leicester4106.9+3.1
Everton4106.9+3.1
Arsenal4129.1+2.9
Tottenham4129.4+2.6
Bournemouth496.5+2.5
Liverpool41210.1+1.9
Crystal Palace497.1+1.9
Swansea242.4+1.6
Stoke242.6+1.4
Chelsea4109.1+0.9
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Huddersfield765369.8−16.8
Wolverhampton Wanderers204.2−4.2
West Bromwich Albion203.0−3.0
Manchester United479.1−2.1
Cardiff223.2−1.2
Manchester City41010.9−0.9
Southampton466.8−0.8
Watford466.7−0.7
Fulham232.5+0.5
Brighton476.2+0.8
Burnley465.2+0.8
Chelsea4109.1+0.9

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Huddersfield's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2018-19Premier League38586823182.682.580.159
2017-18Premier League38555524262.722.260.200

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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