All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 76 league matches of Guingamp since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 30 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches76each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws30 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.67Vesta expected 2.57
Likeliest score happened7 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 98 | 25.9 | 24.5 | −1.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 55 | 34.2 | 32.7 | −1.5 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 27 | 45.3 | 63.0 | +17.6 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Guingamp
Sun 29 Apr 2018 · Ligue 19 in 100- Guingamp 3-1 Monaco
Sat 21 Apr 2018 · Ligue 121 in 100 - Monaco 0-2 GuingampSat 22 Dec 2018 · Ligue 122 in 100
Angers 0-1 GuingampSat 29 Sep 2018 · Ligue 122 in 100
Rennes 1-1 GuingampSun 12 May 2019 · Ligue 122 in 100- Guingamp 1-2 Amiens
Sat 8 Dec 2018 · Ligue 124 in 100 - Guingamp 3-3 Marseille
Sat 12 May 2018 · Ligue 124 in 100 
Nimes 0-0 GuingampWed 26 Sep 2018 · Ligue 124 in 100- Guingamp 2-2 Metz
Sat 24 Feb 2018 · Ligue 124 in 100 - Rennes 0-1 GuingampSun 4 Feb 2018 · Ligue 125 in 100
- Guingamp 0-3 Nantes
Sat 27 Jan 2018 · Ligue 125 in 100 - Guingamp 1-1 AmiensSat 28 Oct 2017 · Ligue 126 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Paris Saint Germain 2-2 GuingampSun 29 Apr 2018 · home win said87 in 100
- Rennes 1-1 GuingampSun 12 May 2019 · home win said62 in 100
- Guingamp 2-2 MetzSat 24 Feb 2018 · home win said58 in 100
- Guingamp 1-1 AmiensSat 28 Oct 2017 · home win said57 in 100
- Guingamp 3-3 MarseilleSat 12 May 2018 · away win said55 in 100
- Guingamp 3-1 MonacoSat 21 Apr 2018 · away win said54 in 100
- Nimes 0-0 GuingampWed 26 Sep 2018 · home win said54 in 100
Strasbourg 3-3 GuingampSat 13 Apr 2019 · home win said54 in 100- Monaco 0-2 GuingampSat 22 Dec 2018 · home win said53 in 100
Bordeaux 0-0 GuingampWed 20 Feb 2019 · home win said52 in 100- Angers 0-1 GuingampSat 29 Sep 2018 · home win said51 in 100
- Guingamp 1-1 Toulouse
Sat 30 Sep 2017 · home win said51 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Guingamp | 76 | 74 | 90.9 | −16.9 |
  Rennes | 4 | 1 | 6.3 | −5.3 |
  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 5.6 | −3.6 |
  Monaco | 4 | 4 | 7.4 | −3.4 |
  Troyes | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | −2.3 |
  Angers | 4 | 4 | 6.1 | −2.1 |
  Nimes | 2 | 2 | 3.3 | −1.3 |
  Metz | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | −1.0 |
  Caen | 4 | 4 | 4.8 | −0.8 |
  Montpellier | 4 | 6 | 6.1 | −0.1 |
  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 |
  Bordeaux | 4 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 49 | 50 | 26 | 32 | 2.58 | 2.53 | 0.189 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 49 | 53 | 27 | 29 | 2.56 | 2.82 | 0.197 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.