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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 292 league matches of Angers since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 52 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 26 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	87	15.8	14.9	−0.9
20–30 in 100	362	26.4	24.6	−1.8
30–40 in 100	183	33.9	32.2	−1.7
40–50 in 100	117	44.6	52.1	+7.6
50–60 in 100	60	53.7	51.7	−2.0
60–70 in 100	32	65.7	68.8	+3.0

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Rennes	16	38	28.2	+9.8
Paris Saint Germain	15	45	36.4	+8.6
Lyon	15	36	29.4	+6.6
Monaco	16	36	30.4	+5.6
Clermont Foot	4	10	5.4	+4.6
Lens	10	23	18.8	+4.2
Nice	16	29	25.0	+4.0
Saint-Etienne	11	17	13.9	+3.1
Ajaccio	2	6	2.9	+3.1
Brest	13	21	18.2	+2.8
Lille	17	33	30.3	+2.7
Nimes	6	9	6.6	+2.4

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Angers	292	308	342.0	−34.0
Dijon	7	3	7.4	−4.4
Montpellier	14	16	19.6	−3.6
Caen	4	1	4.2	−3.2
Amiens	5	3	5.5	−2.5
Auxerre	7	8	10.2	−2.2
Nantes	16	20	22.2	−2.2
Metz	9	8	10.2	−2.2
Paris FC	2	1	2.9	−1.9
Strasbourg	15	21	22.4	−1.4
Troyes	7	7	8.2	−1.2
Marseille	16	29	29.9	−0.9

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Angers's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Ligue 1	6	46	67	29	17	2.55	2.83	0.200
2025-26	Ligue 1	34	53	59	26	26	2.61	2.26	0.188
2024-25	Ligue 1	34	54	59	25	18	2.79	2.50	0.188
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	52	63	25	16	2.76	3.00	0.179
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	47	50	28	29	2.49	2.61	0.193
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	46	50	28	21	2.44	2.58	0.211
2019-20	Ligue 1	28	47	61	28	21	2.44	2.18	0.199
2018-19	Ligue 1	38	47	37	27	42	2.48	2.45	0.197
2017-18	Ligue 1	38	48	37	28	37	2.44	2.47	0.208

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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