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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 326 league matches of Nice since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 27, happened 27 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	81	16.0	24.7	+8.7
20–30 in 100	451	26.4	27.7	+1.3
30–40 in 100	187	34.6	33.2	−1.4
40–50 in 100	132	44.5	43.2	−1.3
50–60 in 100	74	53.9	45.9	−8.0
60–70 in 100	37	64.8	56.8	−8.0

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Nice	326	483	464.4	+18.6
Marseille	17	33	27.2	+5.8
Dijon	7	12	6.5	+5.5
Auxerre	7	12	7.2	+4.8
Clermont Foot	6	10	5.3	+4.7
Metz	11	14	10.2	+3.8
Montpellier	15	21	17.3	+3.7
Paris FC	3	7	3.7	+3.3
Strasbourg	18	26	23.3	+2.7
Toulouse	14	18	15.9	+2.1
Le Havre	6	7	5.0	+2.0
Amiens	5	6	5.0	+1.0

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lens	12	9	18.1	−9.1
Lille	18	19	27.4	−8.4
Rennes	18	19	26.5	−7.5
Bordeaux	10	7	13.3	−6.3
Reims	14	11	16.7	−5.7
Angers	16	14	18.5	−4.5
Nimes	6	3	7.0	−4.0
Guingamp	4	1	4.7	−3.7
Monaco	18	26	28.8	−2.8
Nantes	17	17	19.3	−2.3
Ajaccio	2	0	1.8	−1.8
Brest	14	14	15.6	−1.6

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Nice's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Ligue 1	6	41	33	28	33	2.75	2.00	0.234
2025-26	Ligue 1	34	50	44	25	32	2.94	2.85	0.217
2024-25	Ligue 1	34	52	59	25	26	2.86	3.15	0.189
2023-24	Ligue 1	34	48	38	27	29	2.56	2.03	0.233
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	48	39	27	34	2.63	2.24	0.224
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	48	53	27	18	2.65	2.32	0.247
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	46	47	27	18	2.59	2.71	0.242
2019-20	Ligue 1	28	46	54	28	29	2.49	2.82	0.195
2018-19	Ligue 1	38	47	47	28	29	2.44	1.71	0.231
2017-18	Ligue 1	38	50	45	26	24	2.67	2.76	0.215

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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