All questions

Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 326 league matches of Lyon since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 52 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 24, happened 22 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free

LeagueAll five leaguesPremier LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaLigue 1 SeasonEvery season2026-272025-262024-252023-242022-232021-222020-212019-202018-192017-18 ClubEvery clubArsenalAston VillaBournemouthBrentfordBrightonChelseaCoventryCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamHullIpswichLeedsLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenhamAlavesAthletic ClubAtletico MadridBarcelonaCelta VigoDeportivo La CorunaElcheEspanyolGetafeLevanteMalagaOsasunaRacing SantanderRayo VallecanoReal BetisReal MadridReal SociedadSevillaValenciaVillarrealAC MilanAtalantaBolognaCagliariComoFiorentinaFrosinoneGenoaInterJuventusLazioLecceMonzaNapoliParmaRomaSassuoloTorinoUdineseVeneziaAugsburgBayer LeverkusenBayern MunichBorussia DortmundBorussia M.GladbachEintracht FrankfurtElversbergFC CologneFreiburgHamburger SVHoffenheimMainz 05PaderbornRasenBallsport LeipzigSchalke 04Union BerlinVfB StuttgartWerder BremenAngersAuxerreBrestLe HavreLe MansLensLilleLorientLyonMarseilleMonacoNiceParis FCParis Saint GermainRennesStrasbourgToulouseTroyes Show

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	157	15.8	17.2	+1.4
20–30 in 100	398	24.9	22.4	−2.6
30–40 in 100	125	35.0	40.8	+5.8
40–50 in 100	88	44.5	50.0	+5.5
50–60 in 100	96	55.0	58.3	+3.3
60–70 in 100	75	65.1	54.7	−10.4

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

Share view

Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lyon	326	571	559.6	+11.4
Rennes	18	28	22.1	+5.9
Clermont Foot	6	10	5.6	+4.4
Lens	13	21	17.2	+3.8
Nice	18	23	19.7	+3.3
Reims	13	16	12.8	+3.2
Lille	18	25	22.8	+2.2
Paris Saint Germain	18	37	34.9	+2.1
Brest	13	14	12.1	+1.9
Montpellier	15	15	13.3	+1.7
Dijon	7	5	3.9	+1.1
Lorient	10	10	9.1	+0.9

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Angers	15	6	12.0	−6.0
Toulouse	15	9	14.8	−5.8
Troyes	6	0	4.3	−4.3
Guingamp	4	0	3.1	−3.1
Nantes	17	11	14.0	−3.0
Nimes	5	1	3.7	−2.7
Monaco	17	21	23.3	−2.3
Amiens	6	2	3.7	−1.7
Caen	4	1	2.7	−1.7
Saint-Etienne	12	8	9.6	−1.6
Ajaccio	2	0	1.1	−1.1
Auxerre	7	5	5.9	−0.9

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Lyon's matches; the current season so far

CSV Share view

Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Ligue 1	6	45	50	27	33	2.78	2.50	0.193
2025-26	Ligue 1	34	49	47	26	18	2.84	2.74	0.212
2024-25	Ligue 1	34	51	62	25	18	3.10	3.26	0.203
2023-24	Ligue 1	34	47	44	25	15	2.97	3.06	0.251
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	53	53	24	21	3.04	2.95	0.218
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	53	50	24	29	2.95	3.08	0.205
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	58	55	24	26	2.83	3.26	0.185
2019-20	Ligue 1	28	54	46	25	25	2.73	2.46	0.217
2018-19	Ligue 1	38	57	53	23	24	2.91	3.08	0.213
2017-18	Ligue 1	38	59	58	22	24	2.92	3.42	0.197

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

Related questions

Who scores, starts and keeps a clean sheet next?Next round and fixturesWho wins the league, and how likely?Title, top four, relegationWho is over- or under-performing?Goals against expected goals