All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 214 league matches of Saint-Etienne since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 55 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 24 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches214each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened55 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.81Vesta expected 2.69
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 59 | 16.0 | 6.8 | −9.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 283 | 26.2 | 24.4 | −1.8 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 117 | 34.4 | 37.6 | +3.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 82 | 44.4 | 45.1 | +0.7 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 51 | 54.1 | 58.8 | +4.7 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 22 | 64.3 | 77.3 | +13.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Saint-Etienne 0-1 Dijon
Sun 23 May 2021 · Ligue 113 in 100- Saint-Etienne 2-1 Lyon
Sun 20 Apr 2025 · Ligue 114 in 100 - Saint-Etienne 1-1 Paris Saint Germain
Fri 6 Apr 2018 · Ligue 116 in 100 - Saint-Etienne 1-0 Lille
Fri 13 Sep 2024 · Ligue 119 in 100 - Lyon 1-1 Saint-EtienneSun 25 Feb 2018 · Ligue 120 in 100
- Saint-Etienne 0-1 Metz
Wed 25 Sep 2019 · Ligue 121 in 100 - Saint-Etienne 1-1 Paris Saint GermainWed 6 Jan 2021 · Ligue 121 in 100
Rennes 0-2 Saint-EtienneSun 14 Feb 2021 · Ligue 121 in 100
Reims 0-2 Saint-EtienneSat 10 May 2025 · Ligue 122 in 100- Saint-Etienne 1-1 LyonSun 3 Oct 2021 · Ligue 123 in 100
Angers 0-1 Saint-EtienneWed 26 Jan 2022 · Ligue 123 in 100- Saint-Etienne 3-1 ReimsSat 4 Jan 2025 · Ligue 123 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Saint-Etienne 1-1 Paris Saint GermainFri 6 Apr 2018 · away win said74 in 100
- Saint-Etienne 2-1 LyonSun 20 Apr 2025 · away win said67 in 100
- Lyon 1-1 Saint-EtienneSun 25 Feb 2018 · home win said66 in 100
- Saint-Etienne 1-1 Paris Saint GermainWed 6 Jan 2021 · away win said66 in 100
- Saint-Etienne 0-1 DijonSun 23 May 2021 · home win said65 in 100
Nantes 2-2 Saint-EtienneSun 29 Sep 2024 · home win said62 in 100- Saint-Etienne 1-1 LyonSun 3 Oct 2021 · away win said59 in 100
- Lille 0-0 Saint-EtienneFri 11 Mar 2022 · home win said58 in 100
- Saint-Etienne 2-2 DijonSat 3 Mar 2018 · home win said57 in 100
- Saint-Etienne 2-2 Marseille
Fri 9 Feb 2018 · away win said57 in 100 - Saint-Etienne 2-2 Toulouse
Sun 15 Sep 2019 · home win said57 in 100 - Saint-Etienne 3-3 Brest
Sun 13 Apr 2025 · away win said56 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Saint-Etienne's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 60 | 59 | 22 | 18 | 3.24 | 3.41 | 0.176 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 48 | 58 | 27 | 29 | 2.63 | 3.13 | 0.179 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 46 | 42 | 28 | 26 | 2.46 | 2.53 | 0.228 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | 28 | 47 | 57 | 27 | 21 | 2.56 | 2.64 | 0.207 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 47 | 66 | 26 | 24 | 2.66 | 2.63 | 0.172 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 50 | 47 | 26 | 26 | 2.62 | 2.55 | 0.197 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.